摘要
当前中国货币政策正加速由数量型调控转向价格型调控,利率调控模式及价格型货币政策操作目标的选择日益受到关注。利率走廊机制在发达经济体运用广泛,也是未来中国人民银行利率调控的备选模式之一。文章对欧洲利率走廊机制的演变及其特点进行了归纳总结,对不同时期欧洲利率走廊的政策效果进行了实证检验。结合当前中国金融运行面临的挑战,文章采用GARCH(1,1)模型对货币政策操作目标的选择进行了实证研究,建议将DR001作为未来中国利率走廊机制下的操作目标,并为中国完善利率走廊机制提出了一系列政策建议。
At present,China’s monetary policy is accelerating shifts from quantitative regulation to price regulation,and the choice of interest rate regulation mode and operational target has attracted more and more attention. As the mainstream price-based monetary policy regulation model,the interest rate corridor model is widely used in developed economies and it is also one of the alternative models for the reform of China’s interest rate regulation model. As a typical representative of the interest rate corridor model,regarding the similarity between the ECB and the People’s Bank of China( PBC),this paper summarizes the evolution and characteristics of the European interest rate corridor model,and emperically tests its policy effect in different periods. This paper also compares the balance sheet structure of the ECB and PBC,and provides the experience for the construction of China’ s interest rate corridor regulation model. Considering the current challenges of China,this paper uses the GARCH( 1,1) model to empirically analyze the choice of operational target,and suggests that DR001 should be regarded as the operational target under the interest rate corridor model of China in the future. Moreover this paper also proposes a series of policy proposals for China to improve interest rate corridor system.
作者
汪洋
刘腾华
WANG Yang;LIU Tenghua
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期3-17,M0002,共16页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中央银行的逻辑与现代中央银行制度的建设”(项目编号:21ZDA045)
教育部人文社会科学基金规划项目“农产品‘保险+期货’模式的统计精算模型与风险分担机制研究”(项目编号:20YJA790062)
江西省研究生创新专项资金项目“新冠疫情对我国进出口企业的影响分析及纾困策略”(项目编号:YC2020-B114)的资助。
