摘要
目的分析我国2011—2020年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的时空分布特征,为部队驻训科学防控提供依据。方法收集我国疾病预防控制中心网站公布的法定传染病疫情报告信息,整理2011—2020年HFRS疫情按月发病数。用拆分圆形分布法分析HFRS发病的春夏季和秋冬季的高峰日、高峰期,用Joinpoint回归分析法评价该病年发病率的长期趋势、变化百分比(APC,95%CI)。按东、南、西、北、中5个方向及所辖省份进行分层分析空间分布特征。结果我国2011—2020年HFRS平均发病率0.831/10万,平均病死率0.695%,10年变化趋势不明显,2011—2017年、2018—2020年APC(95%CI)为-1.47%(-7.4%~4.8%)、-13.04%(-48.1%~45.8%)(P>0.05)。HFRS发病呈双峰型季节分布特征,且存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P<0.01),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F_(春夏季)=62.26,P<0.01;F_(秋冬季)=30.49,P<0.01),春夏季表现为小高峰,其发病高峰日是6月11日,高峰期为4月10日至8月12日;秋冬季为明显高峰,发病高峰日是12月16日,高峰期为11月6日至1月26日。5个方向中北部病例数最多,其次是中部、东部、南部,西部最少,不同方向所辖省份中中部方向的陕西省HFRS发病例数最多(14766例),其次为北部方向的黑龙江省(12022例)、山东省(10585例)和辽宁省(8752例)。结论我国HFRS发病存在北部和中部高发地区、双峰型分布特征即春夏季小高峰6月11日(4—8月)和秋冬季明显高峰12月16日(11—1月),部队驻训时应重视高发地区、围绕高峰期做好HFRS的预防控制工作。
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in China from 2011 to 2020,in order to provide the evidence for the prevention and control measures of HFRS.Methods The data of HFRS was downloaded from the website of the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control.The number of case was collected monthly every year.The season data was split according to spring and summer,autumn and winter.The circle distribution method was used to analyze the peak day and peak period of the HFRS,and the Join-point regression analysis method was used to evaluate the long-term trend and percentage change of the annual incidence of the disease(APC,95%CI).The spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed in five directions,namely east,south,west,north and central,as well as the provinces under their jurisdiction.Results The average incidence rate of HFRS in China from 2011 to 2020 was 0.831/100000,and the average fatality rate was 0.695%.The trend of change in 10-year was not obvious.The APC(95%CI)during 2011-2017 and 2018-2020 was -1.47%(-7.4%-4.8%),-13.04%(-48.1%-45.8%)(P>0.05).The incidence of HFRS showed the bimodal seasonal distribution,and there were obvious peak days and peak periods(P<0.01).The peak days of incidence in each year were different or not all the same(F_(spring and summer)=62.26,P<0.01;F_(autumn and winter)=30.49,P<0.01).The peak incidence in spring and summer was 11^(th) June,and the peak period was 10^(th) April-12^(th) August,and the peak of incidence in autumn and winter was 16^(th) December,and the peak period was 6^(th) November-26^(th) January.The largest number of cases in the five directions was the north,followed by the central,eastern,southern,and the least was the west.The number of HFRS cases in Shanxi province(14766 cases)was the highest in the central direction,followed by Heilongjiang province(12022 cases),Shandong province(10585 cases)and Liaoning province(8752 cases)in the northern direction.Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in China existed northern and central high-incidence areas.Double-peak distribution characteristics was small peaks in spring and summer on 11^(th) June(April to August)and obvious peaks in autumn and winter on 16^(th) December(November to January),and the troops should pay attention to the high-incidence areas and done a good job in the prevention and control of HFRS around the peak periods.
作者
刘聪敏
袁阳
陶维光
吕颖
高秋菊
Liu Congmin;Yuan Yang;Tao Weiguang;Lyu Ying;Gao Qiuju(Department of Epidemic Prevention and Protection,Medical NCOs Academy of Army Medical University,Shijiazhuang 050081,Hebei,China)
出处
《疾病监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期1447-1452,共6页
Disease Surveillance
基金
陆军军医大学科技创新能力提升专项(No.2019XYY10)。
关键词
肾综合征出血热
发病率
季节性
圆形分布
Joinpoint回归
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
Incidence rate
Seasonality
Circular distribution
Joinpoint regression
