摘要
人口结构预测为制定社会经济发展规划以及生育政策的实施提供基础材料。基于生育转变理论,使用人口—发展—环境分析模型(PDE)对我国未来人口年龄结构进行预测,并分别使用贝叶斯分层模型与Lee-Carter模型对PDE模型所涉及的生育率与死亡率等参数进行预测。研究结果表明:我国处于生育转变的第三阶段,我国生育水平的未来变动趋势有高、中、低三种方案;死亡率呈“U”字形趋势,即出生时和年老时死亡率较高。对未来人口年龄结构的预测结果表明:在高方案下,少儿人口占比小幅度增加,符合轻度老龄化人口结构特征;中方案下,人口总量在2030年左右达到峰值后持续走低,人口结构老化比高方案下更严重;在低方案下,少儿占比明显下降,人口结构呈严重老龄化。
The population structure forecast provides basic materials for the formulation of social and economic development plans and the implementation of fertility policies. Based on the fertility transition theory, this paper uses the population-development-environment analysis model(PDE) to predict the age structure of China’s future population and uses the Bayesian hierarchical model and the Lee-Carter model to predict the fertility rate and death rate parameters involved in the PDE model. The results of the study show that China is in the third stage of fertility transition.The future change trend of fertility rate has three options: high, medium, and low;the mortality rate is in a "U"-shaped trend, that is, the mortality rate at birth and old age is relatively high. The prediction results of the future population age structure show that under the high plan, the elderly population accounts for a relatively high proportion of the population, while the number of newborns are increasing, which is in line with the characteristics of the mildly aging population structure;under the medium plan, China’s total population will reach peak of the population and then continues to decline around 2030;under the low plan, the proportion of newborns has dropped significantly, and the population structure is seriously aging.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2022年第6期68-72,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
2021年度江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目人工智能对就业影响的不确定性问题研究:机器学习视角(TJ21101)
2021江西省社会科学基金项目双循环新格局下人工智能驱动江西制造业高质量发展研究(21GL10)
国家自然科学基金项目“复杂性视角下民生系统的综合评价研究——以江西为例”(71663024)
2021年江西财经大学“青年马克思主义者培养工程”(2021222612345161)。
关键词
生育转变理论
人口结构预测
生育政策
贝叶斯分层模型
fertility transition theory
population structure forecast
fertility policy
Bayesian hierarchical model
