摘要
目的预测艾司氯胺酮纳入医保目录后对医保基金支出的影响。方法对艾司氯胺酮纳入医保目录或不纳入医保目录两种市场情境下的销量进行估计,并在此基础上计算艾司氯胺酮医保准入决策对医保支出的影响。结果基础分析显示艾司氯胺酮纳入医保相比不纳入医保对2021—2023年医保开支的影响分别为-320.16万元、-1553.22万元和-4000.09万元,其中对职工基本医疗保险支出的影响分别为-93.59万元、-454.04万元和-1169.30万元,对城乡居民基本医疗保险支出的影响分别为-226.57万元、-1099.19万元和-2830.79万元。敏感性分析显示艾司氯胺酮准入后的医保支出仅在低销量预期情形下有所增加。结论艾司氯胺酮在医保准入后将降低医保支出。
Objective This study aims at predicting the impact of the inclusion of S(+)-ketamine into national drug reimbursement list on national health insurance fund expenditure basing on predicted market changes.Methods Predicting the sales of S(+)-ketamine assuming this medication is included into the national drug reimbursement list and vice versa.Calculating the difference of national health insurance fund expenditure under different assumptions.Results The impact of the inclusion of S(+)-ketamine into national drug reimbursement list on national health insurance fund expenditure form 2021—2023 is predicted to be-3201.6 thousands,-15532.2 thousands and-40000.9 thousands CNY.The impact on basic medical insurance for urban employees is predicted to be-935.9 thousand,-4540.4 thousand and-11693.0 thousand CNY.The impact on basic medical insurance for rural and non-working urban residents is predicted to be-2265.7 thousand,-10991.9 thousand and-28307.9thousand CNY.Sensitivity analysis shows that the medical insurance expenditure after the admission of S(+)-ketamine has increased only under the expected low sales situation.Conclusion Our results indicate the inclusion of S(+)-ketamine into national drug reimbursement list can reduce the national health insurance fund expenditure.
作者
汪阳
王瑞麟
周颖玉
徐英峰
史录文
韩晟
WANG Yang;WANG Rui-Lin;ZHOU Ying-Yu;XU Ying-Feng;SHI Lu-Wen;HAN Sheng(Science and Technology Development Center of Chinese Pharmaceutical Association,Beijing 100022,China;Department of Pharmacy,Administration and Clinical School of Pharmaceutical Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;International Research Center for Medicinal Administration,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《中国药物经济学》
2022年第10期22-25,共4页
China Journal of Pharmaceutical Economics
关键词
艾司氯胺酮
药物经济学
脊柱手术
麻醉
S(+)-ketamine
Pharmacoeconomics
Spinal surgery
Anesthesia
