摘要
随着可持续发展理念的深入,汽车行业引入新能源业务是大势所趋,相应的交易活动日渐频繁,如何准确评估汽车企业的价值也成为亟待解决的问题。通过分析汽车企业特点及价值构成,将汽车企业的价值分为现有资产价值和潜在获利价值两部分,并构建基于EVA法和实物期权法的混合模型,以比亚迪为例进行评估。研究结果表明:在汽车企业加大新能源业务投资的背景下,除计算传统燃油车产生的现有资产价值外,新能源业务产生的潜在获利价值也要考虑在内,EVA法和实物期权法相结合使评估结果更全面准确;ARIMA模型的引入提高了EVA法预测收入的准确性,剔除了人为因素的主观影响。
With the deepening of the concept of sustainable development,the introduction of new energy business in the automotive industry is a major trend,and the corresponding transaction activities are becoming more and more frequent,so how to accurately assess the value of automotive enterprises has become an urgent problem.By analyzing the characteristics and value composition of automobile enterprises,the value of automobile enterprises is divided into two parts:existing asset value and potential profit value,and constructs a hybrid model based on EVA method and real option method,taking BYD as an example for evaluation.The research results show that:in the context of increasing investment in new energy business by auto companies,in addition to calculating the existing asset value generated by traditional fuel vehicles,the potential profit value generated by new energy business should also be considered,so the combination of the EVA method and real option makes the evaluation results more comprehensive and accurate;the introduction of the ARIMA model improves the accuracy of the EVA method for predicting income,and eliminates the subjective influence of human factors.
作者
郭仪
吕怡颖
Guo Yi;Lu Yiying(School of Economic and Management,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545006)
出处
《中国资产评估》
2022年第11期73-80,共8页
Appraisal Journal of China
