摘要
文章针对项目组合多项目间风险的相互依赖关系开展风险应对策略选择问题的研究。首先,文章在考虑项目组合结构动态性和复杂性的基础上,分析了项目间依赖关系对项目风险的影响,并利用设计结构矩阵方法进行度量。然后,文章采用心理账户理论和球形模糊集构建了以决策者效用最大化为目标的项目风险应对策略选择优化模型。最后,文章通过算例分析证明了所提方法的可行性和有效性,并分析了不同程度的项目间依赖作用以及心理账户对项目风险应对策略选择的影响。结果表明:1)项目间依赖关系对项目风险应对策略选择有重要影响;2)在达到最优应对预算之前应选择能应对更多风险的应对策略集;3)在达到最优应对预算之后项目间依赖作用不影响策略选择,但影响决策者的效用值;4)考虑心理账户能够提高应对预算的利用效果。
In the era of VUCA, the uncertainties of the project execution in the light of factors and events affects the accomplishment of the project objectives. Hence, risk management prevails in the course of project management, which points to the process of identifying and evaluating the uncertain factors or events with a negative impact on the completion of project objectives through project implementation. It aims to mitigate the negative impact by taking appropriate risk response strategies. As a result, the selection of risk response strategies directly affects the consequence of project risk management. Most of the existing literature focused on the impact of the correlation between risks or processes in a single project on the selection of risk response strategies. However, in the practice of enterprise management, a project is usually managed in a certain project portfolio. During its execution process, the success and failure of other projects that it depends on may have impacts on its risks. Therefore, it is significant to include the influence of project interdependencies to determine the project risk response strategies.The paper aims to scientifically address such a problem by proposing a method to determine the project risk response strategies concerning the project interdependencies. First, it analyzed and measured the influence of project interdependencies on project risks by design structure matrix in relation to dynamic and complex portfolio structure. Then, concerning the mental behavior of decision makers and the actual evaluation behavior of experts, an optimization model of selecting project risk response strategies aiming at maximizing the utility of decision makers is established, by virtue of the mental accounts theory and spherical fuzzy set. This study is mainly divided into the following three parts: Firstly, the project interdependencies are introduced and classified based on the dynamic and complex project portfolio structure. Besides, it explained the influence of project interdependencies on the risks in a single project by design structure matrix. Secondly, this paper introduces mental accounts theory and spherical fuzzy set considering decision makers′ mental behavior and the actual evaluation process of the experts. Moreover, the paper describes the classification of mental accounts and the computing approach of the membership degree. It sets up a decision optimization model aiming to maximize the utility of decision makers with the constraint of the mental accounts budget. Thirdly, it verifies the feasibility of the model with an instance and analyzes the influences of the different degrees of project interdependencies, as well as the mental accounts on the selection of project risk response strategies. As a key part of project risk management, the selection of project risk response strategies is of great significance to the realization of project objectives. In order to select a reasonable set of project risk response strategies, it includes the influence of project interdependencies on the selection of risk response strategies and establishes an optimization model for the selection of project risk response strategies based on the actual decision-making characteristics of experts and decision makers. The result shows that 1) Projects interdependencies affects the selection of project risk response strategies;2) Before reaching the optimal risk response budget point, the response strategies that can cope with more risks should be selected;3) After reaching the optimal risk response budget point, the project interdependencies don′t affect the selection but the utility value of decision makers instead;4) Mental accounts can improve the effectiveness of the risk response budget.In conclusion, the project interdependences and the mental behavior of decision makers have an important influence on the selection of risk response strategies. The method proposed in the paper not only compensates for the limitations of the previous research on the selection of project risk response strategies, but also provides a basis for the decision makers to make risk response decisions.
作者
张旭
白思俊
郭云涛
白礼彪
ZHANG Xu;BAI Sijun;GUO Yuntao;BAI Libiao(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi′an 710072,China;School of Economics and Management,Chang′an University,Xi′an 710061,China)
出处
《管理工程学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期167-175,共9页
Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71971173)
陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2015R005)
西北工业大学研究生创意创新种子基金资助(CX2020226)。
关键词
项目间依赖关系
心理账户理论
球形模糊集
设计结构矩阵
Project interdependencies
Mental accounts theory
Spherical fuzzy set
Design structure matrix
