摘要
构建新发展格局是中国经济社会发展的重大战略导向,国内国际循环对经济发展具有怎样的推动作用,是构建新发展格局背景下重要的理论问题。利用增加值分解方法,以经济与发展合作组织(OECD)国际投入产出表数据(1995-2018年)为主,综合2000-2014年全球投入产出数据(WIOD)、亚洲发展银行(ADB)2008-2020年国际投入产出数据和WIOD历史投入产出数据(1965-2000年),对国内国际循环创造的增加值进行分解,并进一步研究内外循环对经济增长的贡献作用。主要结论有三点:一是1965-2020年,中国GDP国内循环比例经历了U型变化,从改革开放前的95%以上逐渐下降至全球金融危机前的72%左右,近年来又稳步提升至85%。二是1996-2001年,国内、国际循环对经济增长的贡献率为81.4%和18.6%,2002-2008年,两者变化为69.6%和30.4%,2010-2018年进一步变化为88.0%和12.0%。近年来国内循环对经济增长的贡献不断增强。三是在后工业化大国中,美国国内循环对经济增长的带动作用最强,使得中长期经济增长的绩效明显优于英国、法国、德国和日本等其他发达经济体,人力资本积累服务、房地产、金融业、信息技术服务等国内循环水平对经济增长的带动作用更加明显。
Building a new development paradigm is a major strategic direction for China’s economic and social development.How the domestic and international circulation can promote economic development is an important theoretical issue under the background of the new development paradigm.Using the value-added decomposition method,this paper mainly focuses on the data of OECD international input-output table(1995-2018),and synthesizes the WIOD(2000-2014)and ADB(2008-2020)international input-output data,and the WIOD historical input-output data(1965-2000)to decompose the added value created by domestic and international circulation.Further studies are made on the contribution of domestic and international circulation to economic growth.Three major conclusions are made as follows:Firstly,from 1965 to 2020,the domestic circulation ratio of China’s GDP experienced a U-shaped change,which reduced gradually from more than 95%before the reform and opening-up to about 72%before the global financial crisis,and then it steadily increased to 85%in recent years.Secondly,from 1996 to 2001,the contribution rate of domestic and international circulation to economic growth were 81.4%and 18.6%,respectively,from 2002 to 2008,the rates changed to 69.6%and 30.4%,and from 2010 to 2018,the rates further changed to 88.0%and 12.0%.In recent years,the contribution rate of domestic circulation to economic growth has continued to increase.Thirdly,among the post-industrialized countries,the domestic circulation of the United States has the strongest driving effect on economic growth,making the performance of medium and long-term economic growth significantly better than that of other developed economies such as the United Kingdom,France,Germany and Japan.Human capital accumulation services,real estate,financial industry and information technology services have a more obvious driving effect on economic growth.
作者
薛村
陆江源
张铭慎
XUE Cun;LU Jiang-yuan;ZHANG Ming-shen(School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Institute of Economics,Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期1-13,共13页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“消费与人力资本关联机制及其对创新效率影响研究”(20CJL032)
中国宏观经济研究院2021年重点课题“国内国际大循环的历史轨迹、国际经验和相关政策研究”(A2021011001)。
关键词
国内国际循环
新发展格局
增长贡献
发展动力
Domestic and International Circulation
New Development Paradigm
Growth Contribution
Development Momentum
