摘要
[研究目的]全球战略博弈格局下,大国间权力变化直接影响公众认知,民意波动又会作用于施政决策,扭转国家战略意图,进而导致国际关系的演变。[研究方法]着眼于国别民意测量,以三维权力观为主要理论视角,基于对2 020名美国公众的在线问卷调查数据进行实证分析,考察中国科技实力变化如何影响美国公众对华威胁认知,着重探究国家形象和国家认同在其间的中介效应。[研究结论]结果显示,一是中国的科技实力变化显著影响美国公众对华威胁认知,两者为负相关关系。二是国家形象(美国公众对中国整体印象)与国家认同(美国公众对美国认同程度)在中国的科技实力变化与美国公众对华威胁认知之间起中介作用,且均为负效应。上述发现拓展了权力变化与公众威胁认知影响机制的研究,有助于解释中美关系的当前变化和研判中美关系的未来走向。
[Research purpose] In the global strategic game landscape, changes in power among major powers directly affect public perceptions. And, fluctuations in public opinion act on governance decisions, reversing national strategic intentions and leading to the evolution of international relations. [Research method] This study examines how changes in China’s scientific and technological power affect the American public’s perception of the threat to China, focusing on the mediating effects of national image and national identity, using a three-dimensional view of power as the main theoretical perspective. [Research conclusion] The results show that, first, changes in China’s scientific and technological power significantly affect the American public’s threat perceptions of China, with a negative correlation between the two. Second, national image(the American public’s overall impression of China) and national identity(the American public’s identification with the United States) mediate the relationship between changes in China’s scientific and technological power and the American public’s threat perceptions of China, in two negative effects. The above findings expand the research on the mechanisms of power changes and public threat perceptions, and help explain the current changes in Sino-U.S. relations and examine the future direction of such relations.
作者
徐迪
李晓川
Xu Di;Li Xiaochuan(Philosophy and Social Sciences Laboratory of Big Data and National Communication Strategy,Ministry of Education,Journalism and Information Communication School of HUST,Wuhan 430074)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第1期66-74,41,共10页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“人类命运共同体视阈下中国国家形象在西方主流媒体的百年传播研究”(编号:19ZDA322)。
关键词
中美关系
科技实力
威胁认知
民意测量
三维权力观
Sino-U.S.relations
scientific and technological power
threat perception
public opinion measurement
three-dimensional view of power
