摘要
研究目的:采用国内42个城市住宅用地出让数据,基于拍卖关联价值模型分析“两集中”供地政策对土地出让价格及溢价率的影响机制。研究方法:双重差分法、中介效应和调节效应模型。研究结果:(1)前两轮集中供地显著提升了住宅用地出让单价,首轮和第三轮集中供地提升了土地出让溢价率;(2)“两集中”供地通过竞拍者私人价值渠道“筛选”出资金实力更雄厚的联合竞得人参与竞价,从而提高了土地出让价格;(3)“两集中”供地通过市场预期渠道稳定土地出让市场预期,对土地出让价格起到了平抑作用。研究结论:“两集中”政策在短期内改变了市场供求节奏、土地出让竞争格局和竞拍者市场预期,导致地价与溢价率波动。未来“两集中”政策管理需要注意土地供应总量与结构的合理性,弹性调整出让规则,强化集中供地市场信息公开与稳控机制。
The purposes of this study are to use the residential land transfer data in 42 cities in China to analyze the impact mechanism of the centralized land supply policy on the residential land prices and premium rates based on affiliated value model.The research methods include multi-period differences-in-differences,mediating effect model and moderating effect model.The research results show that the first two rounds of centralized land supply significantly increased the land prices,and the first and the third rounds of centralized land supply significantly increased the premium rates.There is a private value channel where the first two rounds of centralized land supply“screened”joint bidders with stronger funds to participate in the bidding and increased the land transfer price.There is also a market information channel which stabilizes the expectation of housing market and the land transfer price.In conclusion,the policy changes the rhythm of supply and demand,the competition pattern of land sales and the market expectations in the short term,resulting in fluctuations in land prices and premium rates.It is necessary to improve the structure of land supply and adjust the land transfer rules to realize a long-term residential land supply mechanism.
作者
黄奕淇
曲卫东
HUANG Yiqi;QU Weidong(School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期64-74,共11页
China Land Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国房地产税制改革方案及模拟研究”(18BJY223)。
关键词
“两集中”政策
住宅用地
土地出让规则
市场预期
双重差分
centralized land supply policy
residential land use right
land transfer rules
market expectation
differences-in-differences
