摘要
“:双碳”目标下,推动河北省建筑业、区域经济与生态环境高水平协调发展,对培育绿色建筑发展新路径、实现绿色经济发展新模式、开辟绿色生态发展新方向具有重大意义。在构建建筑业—区域经济—生态环境评价指标体系的基础上,运用耦合协调模型对河北省2010—2019年三大系统耦合协调发展进行综合实证研究,并利用灰色预测模型对未来10年的耦合协调度进行预测,采用灰色关联分析法探寻耦合协调度的影响因素。研究结果表明,三大系统耦合协调度仍处在失调水平和起步阶段;预计在2028年进入良好协调水平和成熟耦合阶段;地区生产总值、绿地面积、地区能源消耗、劳动生产率、工业固废综合利用率与三大系统耦合协调度关联度较高。基于此,有针对性提出“双碳”目标下推动河北省建筑业、区域经济与生态环境耦合协调发展的建议。
Under the“dual carbon”goal,it is of great significance to promote the high-level coordinated development of construction industry,regional economy and ecological environment in Hebei Province,and to foster a new path of green building development,change the new mode of green economy development,and build a new direction of green ecological development. On the basis of the establishment of evaluation index system of construction industry—regional economy—ecological environment,the comprehensive empirical study of three systems coupled coordination development of Hebei Province in 2010-2019 with the coupling coordination model is conducted,and by using the grey prediction model to predict the coupling coordination degree in the next decade,finally uses the grey correlation analysis method to explore the influence factors of coupling coordination degree. The results show that,first,the three coupling coordination degrees are still at the disordered level and the initial stage;Second,it is expected to enter a good coordination level and mature coupling stage in 2028;Third,regional GDP,green area,regional energy consumption,labor productivity,comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste are highly correlated with the coupling coordination degree of the three systems. Based on this,some suggestions are put forward to promote the coupling and coordinated development of construction industry,regional economy and ecological environment in Hebei Province under the“dual carbon”target.
出处
《环境保护与循环经济》
2022年第11期11-18,共8页
environmental protection and circular economy
基金
河北省研究生创新资助项目(CXZZSS2022061)
河北建筑工程学院研究生创新基金项目(XY202258)
河北省高校基本科研业务费项目(2021XSTD05)
河北省高校基本科研业务费项目(2022QNJS14)
河北省统计科学研究计划项目(2021HL04)。
关键词
双碳
建筑业
区域经济
生态环境
协调发展
double carbon
construction industry
regional economy
ecological environment
coordinated development
