摘要
高钢级管道失效形式中,环焊缝开裂或泄漏失效占失效总数的近1/3。为此,针对不同的指标类型选用不同评价方法,提出综合模糊理论与指数法的风险评价方法。评价过程中,采用故障树法得到不可量化评价指标,结合模糊评价和熵权法计算最大隶属度;进而基于相关标准要求确定可量化评价指标,采用指数法计算风险值;最后,基于最大隶属度和指数法风险值建立风险评价矩阵,得到环焊缝风险等级。利用所提出的方法,对中缅天然气管道某管段环焊缝进行风险评价,结果表明:该管段环焊缝失效风险主要由不可量化指标决定,风险处于较高水平,其中管道维护计划执行差、焊接人员资质不达标、焊接工艺规程不清晰等客观因素是导致环焊缝失效的主要原因,评价结果与现场事故报告得到的结论一致。所提出的方法对高纲级管道环焊缝风险评价体系进行了补充与改进,为解决高钢级管道环焊缝失效问题提供了理论参考。
Among the failure modes of high-grade steel pipelines, cracking or leakage failures of girth welds account for nearly 1/3 in total. Thus, different assessment methods are adopted for various types of indicators, and a risk assessment method based on comprehensive fuzzy theory and index method was proposed. Specifically, the non-quantifiable assessment indicators were obtained by the fault tree method and the maximum membership degree was calculated by combining the fuzzy assessment and the entropy weight method. On this basis, the quantifiable assessment indicators were determined according to the requirements of relevant standards, and their risk values were calculated by the index method. Finally, a risk assessment matrix was established according to the maximum membership degree and risk values obtained with the index method, so as to determine the risk level of girth welds. Herein, risk assessment was performed for the girth welds in a section of Myanmar-China Natural Gas Pipeline with the proposed method. According to the results, the failure risk of girth welds in the pipeline section is mainly determined by the non-quantifiable indicators and the pipeline section is at high risk. Definitely, poor implementation of pipeline maintenance plan, unacceptable qualification of welders, unclear welding procedure specification and other objective factors are the main causes of girth weld failure, and the assessment results are consistent with the field accident reports. Generally, the proposed method supplements and improves the risk assessment system for girth welds of high-grade steel pipelines, and could provide theoretical reference for solving the problem of girth weld failure in high-grade steel pipelines.
作者
谢秋菊
郭岩宝
张敏
谷月
XIE Qiuju;GUO Yanbao;ZHANG Min;GU Yue(College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing))
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第11期1291-1297,共7页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“典型城市民生设施质量检测与评价技术研究”,2018YFF0215000。
关键词
高钢级管道
环焊缝
故障树
模糊评价法
指数法
风险评价
high-grade steel pipelines
girth welds
fault tree
fuzzy evaluation method
index method
risk assessment
