摘要
自COVID-19爆发以来,全球经济受到了很大影响。本文使用新凯恩斯(DSGE)模型分析了COVID-19对经济造成的冲击,并提出COVID-19不是以单一的需求冲击或供给冲击影响经济,而是以一种混合冲击的形式影响产出、通胀和利率。为应对COVID-19造成的经济冲击,考虑到目前全球低利率环境常态化,货币政策受到有效下限约束难以发挥稳增长的作用。因此,本文着重研究了财政政策的有效性,通过设立泰勒型财政政策规则,分析在不同冲击场景下的最优财政政策。
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19,the global economy has been greatly affected.This paper uses the New Keynesian(DSGE)model to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the economy,and proposes that COVID-19 does not affect the economy with a single demand shock or supply shock,but affects output,inflation and interest rates in the form of a mixed shock.In order to deal with the economic shock caused by COVID-19,considering the normalization of the current global low interest rate environment,it is difficult for monetary policy to play a role in stabilizing growth due to the constraints of the effective lower limit.Therefore,this paper focuses on the effectiveness of fiscal policy,and analyzes the optimal fiscal policy under different shock scenarios by establishing Taylor-type fiscal policy rules.
作者
马尔赛
MA Er-sai(Zhejiang Tongji Vocational College of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 311231,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2023年第2期34-37,共4页
Value Engineering
基金
2022年浙江同济科技职业学院院级科研项目“基于DSGE模型的COVID-19经济冲击效应与财政政策选择研究”(项目编号FRF22YB022)的研究成果。
