摘要
降水量时间序列具有概率统计意义上的周期性,识别判定序列的周期性对于降水规律的预测分析、灾害防御预判具有重要意义,近年来,随着水旱灾害防御工作对“预报、预警、预演、预案”要求越来越高,有针对性的降水量周期性研究的重要性更加凸显。为支撑“四预”工作,研究降水时间序列规律,文章以潍坊市年平均降水的系列资料为基础资料,采用Morlet小波对其进行多时间尺度分析,判定在不同时间尺度下,潍坊市年降水量丰、枯变化的过程和特性,分析得出潍坊市年降水量变化的趋势自2020年后将慢慢转入降水量逐年减少的周期中的结论。
The precipitation time series is periodic in the sense of probability and statistics. The periodicity of identification and determination series is of great significance for the prediction and analysis of precipitation law and disaster prevention. In recent years, with the increasing requirements of "forecast, early warning, rehearsal and plan" for flood and drought disaster prevention, the importance of targeted precipitation periodicity research has become more prominent. In order to support the work of "four forecasts", this paper studies the law of precipitation time series. Based on the series data of annual average precipitation in Weifang city, the multi-time scale analysis is carried out by using Morlet wavelet, and the process and characteristics of the variation of annual precipitation in Weifang city at different time scales are determined. It is concluded that the trend of annual precipitation change in Weifang will gradually turn into a cycle of decreasing precipitation year by year after 2020.
作者
张晓晗
王丽丹
刘英昊
Zhang Xiaohan;Wang Lidan;Liu Yinghao(Weifang Hydrology Center,Weifang 261061,Shandong)
出处
《陕西水利》
2023年第1期43-44,47,共3页
Shaanxi Water Resources
