摘要
准确预测学龄人口的规模和变动趋势,是做出合理可行的教育发展规划的前提。基于第七次全国人口普查数据的学龄人口预测结果表明,2021—2035年我国学龄人口总规模将从3.28亿持续减少至约2.50亿,学龄人口年龄结构也将由“两头小、中间大”的纺锤形结构逐步向“上宽下窄”的倒金字塔结构转变。学前、小学、初中、高中、高等教育的学龄人口将分别在2020年、2023年、2026年、2029年、2032年达到峰值,之后呈现快速减少趋势;学龄人口规模与结构的快速变化对教育资源的供给弹性和适应性提出了更高要求。基于此,应加强人口与教育数据的信息融合、监测预警和趋势研判,重点处理好生育政策短期调整效应与教育政策中长期规划的关系、人口城镇化与教育城镇化的关系、教育资源数量需求下降与质量需求上升的关系,有效应对生育政策变化对教育资源供需格局产生的波动性冲击,推动城乡和区域义务教育资源从“基本均衡”走向“优质均衡”,探索低生育水平下教育资源整合、转化、提升的有效路径。
An accurate prediction of the scale and trend of school-age population is a prerequisite to the reasonable and feasible planning for educational development. This study,based on a prediction according to the data of school-age population from the Seventh National Population Census,finds the following:From 2021 to 2035,China’s total school-age population tends to decrease from 328 million to 250 million,and its age structure tends to change from the spindle-shaped structure(small at both ends and large in the middle)to the inverted pyramid-shaped structure(wide at the top and narrow at the bottom);the school-age population of preschool education,primary education,lower secondary education,upper secondary education,and higher education tends to reach a peak in 2020,2023,2026,2029,2032,respectively,and then tends to decrease rapidly;and the rapid changes in the scale and the structure of school-age population tend to require a more elastic and more adaptable supply of educational resources. Therefore,we need to strengthen the integration of population-related information and educational data,population prediction and trend analysis,and focus on the relationship between the effect of the short-term adjustment of the fertility policy and the medium-and long-term planning for the educational policy, between population urbanization and education urbanization,and between the decreased demand for the quantity of educational resources and the increased demand for their quality,so as to effectively deal with the fluctuations brought by the changes in the fertility policy to the supply and demand of educational resources,promote the shift of "basically balanced" urban-rural and regional compulsory education resources into "high-quality and balanced" ones,and explore effective approaches to the integration,transformation and improvement of educational resources at low fertility rates.
作者
张立龙
史毅
胡咏梅
Zhang Lilong;Shi Yi;Hu Yongmei(the School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070;the China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081;the Faulty of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)
出处
《教育研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第12期101-112,共12页
Educational Research
基金
国家社会科学基金2019年度教育学重大课题“教育适应中国人口结构发展趋势研究”(课题批准号:VGA190003)的研究成果。
关键词
第七次全国人口普查
学龄人口
城镇化
总和生育率
the Seventh National Population Census
school-age population
urbanization
total fertility rate
