摘要
矿产勘查处于矿产资源产业链供应链的上游,经济发展、矿产市场、矿产开发等力量驱动着矿产勘查发展变化。我国经济发展GDP增速大致以2012—2013年为转折,由之前的10%以上缓慢降至6%~8%,工业、建筑业、交通运输业等矿产需求量大的行业部门发展增速放缓。矿产开采总量在2014年达到峰值并进入高位波动期,矿产消费总量由过去的快速增长转变为缓慢增长,不同矿种消费量增长出现分化。采矿业增加值在工业和GDP中比重逐渐降低,采矿业利润在2011年之后由快速攀升转变为不断下行和回升趋稳。我国矿产勘查投入以2013年为转折,由持续增长转变为下行-趋稳,不同矿种勘查投入出现分化,三稀金属和非金属矿产勘查更受市场重视。矿产勘查新发现矿产地和新增查明资源储量总体呈减少趋势。2020—2022年,矿产勘查市场内生回升动力缓慢增强,矿产勘查投入缓慢回升。2017年以来,我国金属矿产勘查投入变化偏离了全球矿业市场走势,主要受国内非市场因素影响。展望未来,我国矿产勘查发展迎来重要战略机遇期,或将催动勘查投入新一轮增长小周期。
Mineral exploration is at the upstream of the industrial and supply chains of mineral resources,and the driving forces such as economic development,mineral market,and mineral exploitation affect the orientation of mineral exploration.China economy saw a turning point from 2012 to 2013,the annual GDP growth rates slowed down to 6%-8%from 10%or higher over past years,and the growth rates of the industries such as manufacturing,construction,transportation with high consumption of mineral resources slowed down gradually.The amount of mineral extraction reached its peak value in 2014 and fluctuated around the high level,and the increase of mineral consumption slowed down markedly.Different growth trends appeared for different types of mineral resources.With a turning point in 2013,the exploration expenditure underwent from a rapid continual increasing to a rapid declining and then a stabilizing level.Minerals of rare earth and dispersed elements and nonmetallic minerals were given more interest by the market.The amount of newly discovered mineral prospects and newly discovered reserves&resources decreased with the dropping of mineral expenditures.From 2020 to 2022,the market recovery for mineral exploration grew up slowly and exploration expenditures rose slowly.Compared with global exploration and mineral exploration in typical countries,the change situation of mineral exploration in China deviated the normal market trends,implying that the exploration activities were more affected by non-market domestic factors.In the future,a strategic opportunity period is expected for the mineral exploration in China,and the exploration investment will see a rising period.
作者
杨建锋
马腾
余韵
张翠光
姚晓峰
YANG Jianfeng;MA Teng;YU Yun;ZHANG Cuiguang;YAO Xiaofeng(Development Research Center of China Geological Survey,Beijing 100037,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
2023年第2期1-10,共10页
China Mining Magazine
基金
中国地质调查局地质调查战略规划政策研究二级项目资助(编号:DD20221828)。
关键词
驱动力
矿产资源
供需形势
矿产开发
矿产勘查
国际对比
driving forces
mineral resources
demand and supply situation
mineral exploitation
mineral exploration
international comparison
