摘要
Henan,China,is likely the most populous agricultural province worldwide.It is China’s major grain-producing area,with a continuously increasing population(96 million),which is greater than 93%of countries worldwide.However,this province has been experiencing unprecedented urbanization recently due to national policies and measures,such as a plan to build the capital city of Henan into a national center,resulting in severe conflicts in land use that endanger food security regionally and globally.To facilitate decision-making on this problem,we explored the detailed urban-rural development of Henan by modeling these land-use conflicts.Conventional modeling of a region’s urban-rural development is to navigate trade-offs(a)solely between different land-use types(b)by assuming that each type provides a single service(e.g.,croplands produce all the food),and(c)under a polynomial regression-based projection of population.In contrast,we considered both land-use type and intensity,resulting in a detailed land system for Henan.By introducing the concept of land system services(e.g.,food production),we established a many-to-many relationship between land system classes and services.These allowed us to carry out the most comprehensive modeling of Henan’s urban-rural development under eighteen combined scenarios of population growth and land-use policies on food production.The modeling results of these scenarios provide a solid basis for making decisions regarding Henan’s urban-rural development.We also revealed the influence mechanism of population growth,land-use policies,and their combinations,highlighting the benefits of securing food production by agricultural intensification rather than merely expanding the area of cropland.
基金
Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA23100303
National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42271418,No.42171250,No.42230106
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,No.2022-ZD-04。
