摘要
欧洲天然气需求呈现显著的季节性波动,供暖季天然气需求量一般能达到淡季需求量的2~3倍,天然气在欧洲取暖需求中扮演着核心角色。乌克兰危机以来,欧洲天然气市场大幅震荡,全球天然气价格随之剧烈波动。2022年冬季俄罗斯天然气对欧供应量处于低位,甚至存在完全断供的风险。基础设施瓶颈限制欧洲LNG进口,较低的LNG新建产能增量不能满足欧洲需求的增长。煤炭和核能在短期内难以弥补天然气缺口,欧洲限价提案难以改变天然气市场短缺局面。2022年在冷冬正常消费情况下,欧洲天然气库存在供暖季结束前提前耗尽,市场将供不应求;在冷冬有效节约消费或暖冬正常消费情况下,欧洲市场将呈现紧平衡态势;如果欧洲经历暖冬,并且政府采取有效的节约消费的措施,那么欧洲天然气市场供需将整体宽松。
The demand for natural gas in Europe shows significant seasonal fluctuations, the demand for natural gas in the heating season is generally 2-3 times that in the off-season and it plays a core role in the demand for heating in Europe. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine issue, the European natural gas market has been greatly shaken and the global natural gas price has fluctuated sharply accordingly. Russian gas supplies to Europe in the winter of 2022 are at a low level or even at risk of being completely cut off. Infrastructure bottlenecks would limit European LNG imports and lower new-built LNG capacity is not sufficient to meet demand growth in Europe. Coal and nuclear are unlikely to fill the gas gap in the short term and the European price cap proposal is also impossible to change the gas shortage. The paper shows that European gas will run out of inventory before the end of the heating season and the market will be in short supply with normal consumption when warm in this winter.There is a tight balance in the European market with efficient consumption when cold in this winter or with normal consumption when warm in this winter. The overall European gas market will ease if Europe experiences a mild winter this winter and next spring and governments adopt effective consumer-saving measures.
作者
闫涵
YAN Han(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2022年第11期80-85,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
