摘要
目的 分析1990-2019年中国居民肺结核发病随年龄、时期及队列变化趋势,为肺结核研究提供参考依据。方法 收集并整理全球疾病负担(global burden of disease, GBD)数据库中1990-2019年中国居民肺结核发病数据,使用连接点回归模型(joinpoint regression, JPR)拟合肺结核发病趋势,建立年龄-时期-队列(age-period-cohort, APC)模型探讨影响肺结核发病风险的年龄效应、时期效应与出生队列效应。结果 1990-2019年中国男性和女性的肺结核发病率均呈下降趋势,年平均变化率分别为2.38%、3.89%;APC模型分析结果显示,1990-2019年我国肺结核发病风险随年龄的增加而上升[RR值(男性):0.22~2.08;RR值(女性):0.38~1.76]。时期发病风险随着年份的增加而降低[RR值(男性):1.11~0.80;RR值(女性):1.57~0.61]。队列发病风险随年代的增加而降低[RR值(男性):1.91~0.42;RR值(女性):1.38~0.55]。结论 1990-2019年中国肺结核发病率总体呈下降趋势,肺结核发病风险随着年龄增加而增大,随着时期和出生队列的增加而降低,需加强对高危人群的防护,降低我国肺结核疾病负担。
Objective To understand the dynamic change of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence among Chinese residents based on age-period-cohort(APC) analysis from 1990 to 2019, in order to provide a reference for the study of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods Data of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the global burden of disease(GBD) database.Join point regression(JPR) model was used to fit the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis, and to establish a APC model to explore the age effect, period effect and birth cohort effect affecting the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results From 1990 to 2019, the incidences of TB in both men and women showed down-ward trends, with annual average changing rate of 2.38% and 3.89%, respectively.APC model analysis showed that the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis increased with age in China from 1990 to 2019(RR:0.22-2.08 in men;RR: 0.38-1.76 in women).The risk of stage onset decreased with the increase of years(RR:1.11-0.80 in men;RR:1.57-0.61 in women).Meanwhile, the risk of cohort onset decreased with years(RR:1.91-0.42 in men;RR: 1.38-0.55 in women). Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the overall incidence of tuberculosis in China shows a downward tendency.The risk of tuberculosis increases over age while decreases with period and birth cohort.It is necessary to strengthen the protection of high-risk population to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in China.
作者
萨拉瓦提·哈日特别克
买力曼·巴哈尼
聂艳武
杨振
田茂再
张利萍
Salawati Haritebieke;Mailiman Bahani;NIE Yan-wu;YANG Zhen;TIAN Mao-zai;ZHANG Li-ping(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region 830017,China)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第12期881-887,共7页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金(72163033,72064036,72174175)。
