摘要
目的描述2005-2016年中国甲状腺癌发病和死亡的变化趋势,分析其年龄-时期-队列效应,为甲状腺癌的防控策略提供参考。方法采用2005-2016年《中国肿瘤登记年报》中甲状腺癌发病和死亡数据,运用Joinpoint软件计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),描述其发病和死亡趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列模型,估算效应系数,分析发病和死亡的年龄-时期-队列效应。结果2005-2016年我国甲状腺癌标化发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势,AAPC值分别为14.73%和5.23%,均P<0.001;女性标化发病率和死亡率均高于男性,女性标化发病率和死亡率的AAPC值分别为14.30%和5.57%,男性标化发病率和死亡率的AAPC值分别为14.56%和7.17%,均P<0.001;城市标化发病率和死亡率均高于农村,城市标化发病率和死亡率的AAPC值分别为14.92%和6.33%,农村发病率和死亡率的AAPC值分别为19.14%和6.53%,均P<0.001。发病率年龄效应50岁之前随年龄增长而上升,并在50~59岁组达到峰值,死亡率年龄效应总体随年龄增长而上升;发病率和死亡率的时期效应随着时间的变化而上升;发病率和死亡率的队列效应总体随出生年份的推移而下降,在1966-1986年出现部分回升。结论中国甲状腺癌的标化发病率和死亡率总体呈上升趋势,应鼓励居民保持适宜的碘营养水平,同时探索建立长期化、规范化的甲状腺癌筛查制度,提高重点地区和高危人群甲状腺癌的筛查率,实现早诊早治,以减轻甲状腺癌所带来的疾病负担。
Objective To describe the trend of incidence and mortality and analyze age-period-cohort effect of thyroid cancer in China from 2005 to 2016,so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of thyroid cancer in China.Methods Based on the incidence and mortality data of thyroid cancer in the Annual Report of China Cancer Registry from 2005 to 2016,Joinpoint Regression Program was adopted to calculate annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)to analyze the temporal trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality rates.The age period cohort model was used to estimate the effect coefficient and analyze the age period cohort effect of morbidity and mortality.Results The standardized incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2016 in China(AAPC values were 14.73%and 5.23%,respectively,both P<0.001).The standardized morbidity and mortality of women were higher than those of men.The AAPC of morbidity and mortality of women were 14.30%and 5.57%,respectively,and the AAPC of morbidity and mortality of men were 14.56%and 7.17%,respectively,both P<0.001.The standardized morbidity and mortality in rural areas were higher than those in urban areas.The AAPC of morbidity and mortality in urban areas were 14.92%and 6.33%,respectively,and the AAPC of morbidity and mortality in rural areas were 19.14%and 6.53%respectively,both P<0.001.The age effect of onset increased with age before 50 years old,and reached the peak in the 50—59 years old group.The age effect of death generally increased with age.Period effects of morbidity and mortality increased with time.Cohort effects on morbidity and mortality generally declined with year of birth,with a partial increase from 1966 to 1986.Conclusion The standardized incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in China shows a rising trend in general.It is necessary to maintain an appropriate level of iodine nutrition,at the same time explore the establishment of a longterm and standardized thyroid cancer screening system to improve the screening rate of thyroid cancer in key areas and high-risk groups and achieve early diagnosis and treatment,and reduce the disease burden caused by thyroid cancer.
作者
张新洲
刘劲松
许娴
张滔
李卫东
卢曼曼
ZHANG Xin-zhou;LIU Jin-song;XU Xian;ZHANG Tao;LI Wei-dong;LU Man-man(Schoolof Health Management,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,China;Department for Endemic and Parasitic Diseases Control and Prevention,Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 23060l,China)
出处
《中华肿瘤防治杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第24期1725-1733,共9页
Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金(71804002)。
