摘要
对长江经济带湿地生态系统的健康状况进行综合评价并预测分析,为该湿地可持续发展提供依据。以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)为框架,选取12个指标构建评价体系;采用层次分析法(AHP)计算各项指标的权重,同时将湿地健康状况划分为“健康、亚健康、脆弱、疾病、恶劣”五项;通过综合评价指数(CEI)对其健康进行分析,并利用整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型预测2025年湿地健康状况。结果表明:长江经济带湿地健康综合评价指数在2005-2017年从0.4755增长到0.6137,健康等级从“脆弱”转变为“亚健康”,到2025年综合评价指数预计超过0.7000,继续保持“亚健康”状态。在压力、状态、响应三项准则层中,压力子系统有相对风险,状态和响应指标应继续保持湿地生态系统的健康状态;在12个评价指标中,人口自然增长率、湿地面积变化率及自然保护区数、第三产业所占比重和湿地管理水平、生态环境恢复是影响长江经济带湿地生态系统健康状况的最主要因素。
The ecosystem health of the wetland in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was comprehensively evaluated and predicted in order to provide a scientific basis for the management and sustainable development of the wetland.A total of 12 evaluation indicators were selected from the three aspects of pressure,state and response to construct the wetland ecosystem based on the"Pressure-State-Response"(PSR)model.And the comprehensive evaluation index(CEI)was used to evaluate and analyze the health of the wedand ecosystem in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is used to predict the health of the wetland ecosystem in 2025.The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of wetland ecosystem health in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased steadily.Natural population growth rate,wetland area change rate,and number of nature reserves,the proportion of tertiary industry,wetland management level,ecological environment restoration are the dominant factors affecting the health of the wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
作者
王浩楠
余凡
李军
WANG Haonan;YU Fan;LI Jun(Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;State Geospatial Information Center,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期78-83,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于深度置信神经网络的地表覆盖质量检测方法研究”(41671440)
国家重点研发计划资助项目“建筑垃圾天地一体化快速识别技术体系与监测系统”(2018YFC0706003)。
