摘要
基于充当灵活调峰电源和促进天然气消费的考量,天然气发电与可再生能源融合发展成为天然气领域重要的研究问题之一。基于梳理中国电力发展规划、可再生发电发展规划和灵活调峰电源发展规划及其之间衔接的研究现状,结合BP神经网络模型的预测结果,对中国未来电力装机总量、可再生能源发电装机及气电装机规模予以分析;通过总结分析中国天然气发电产业发展现状、功能作用及存在的问题,对目前研究提出的未来中国天然气发电产业发展路径予以归纳总结。综述分析认为,在中国电力需求持续增长和可再生能源发电快速增长的背景下,在天然气发电与可再生能源融合发展的条件下,天然气发电发展定位和规划需要进一步明确,天然气发电产业的宏观政策和微观机制需要进一步清晰,天然气发电与可再生能源融合发展的路径需要进一步优化,这些都应该成为后续研究需要深化的方向和重点。
As a flexible peak regulating power source and the factor contributing to natural gas consumption,the integration of natural gas power generation and renewable energy has become one of the key research issues in the field of natural gas.Based on the research reality of Chinese power development plan,renewable energy development plan,flexible peak regulating power source development plan as well as the connection between them,along with the prediction result of BP neural network model,this paper analyzes Chinese total installed power capacity in future,installed capacity of renewable energy power generation and gas power generation;by summarizing and analyzing the development status,functions and problems of China’s natural gas power generation industry,this paper summarizes the development path of China’s natural gas power generation industry in future.According to the analysis,in the context of the continuous growth of China’s power demand and the rapid growth of renewable energy power generation,as well as the integrated development of natural gas power generation and renewable energy,the development positioning and planning of natural gas power generation need to be clarified,the macro policies and micro mechanisms concerning natural gas power generation industry need to be clarified,and the path as regards the integrated development of natural gas power generation and renewable energy needs to be optimized.All this should become the orientation and highlight of the subsequent researches.
作者
徐东
冯敬轩
宋镇
万宏
XU Dong;FENG Jingxuan;SONG Zhen;WAN Hong(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;CNPC Policy Research Office)
出处
《油气与新能源》
2023年第1期17-25,共9页
Petroleum and new energy
关键词
天然气发电
可再生能源
新型电力系统
融合发展
发展定位
发展规划
Gas power generation
Renewable energy
New-type power system
Integrated development
Development orientation
Development plan
