摘要
目前关于重大工程复杂性度量的研究主要采用评价型指标,缺少数值型指标以揭示重大工程的宏观状态与微观状态之间的关系。为此,基于重大工程复杂性领域已有相关研究,在深入解析我国重大工程项目复杂性内涵的基础上,基于系统科学理论,识别出影响重大工程复杂性的技术、组织、目标、环境、任务和信息六大维度及其影响因素,利用马尔科夫链来理解重大工程的不确定性和动态演化特征,同时利用熵理论来量化重大工程的复杂性水平,在此基础上建立重大工程复杂性的马尔科夫链-熵度量模型。进一步以深圳市罗田水库—铁岗水库输水隧洞工程项目为例,运用该模型进行定性定量分析,得到该项目的理论最大复杂性值为10.750 6,实际复杂性值为8.918 2,相对复杂性水平为83%,加权复杂性值为23.037 4,表明项目的复杂性在较高水平,证明运用马尔科夫链-熵度量模型可分析重大工程项目的可持续发展趋势并进行预测决策和控制。
At present, the research on the complexity measurement of megaprojects mainly adopts evaluationtype indicators, lacks numerical indicators to reveal the relationship between the macro-state and micro-state of megaprojects. Based on related research in the field and the in-depth analysis with the connotation of the complexity of megaprojects in China, six dimensions of technology, organization, goal, environment, task, and information that affect the complexity of megaprojects and the impact factors based on system science theory are identified. Markov chain is used to understand the uncertainty and dynamic evolution characteristics of megaprojects, entropy theory is used to quantify the complexity level of megaprojects, and the Markov chain-entropy model of complexity of megaprojects is established on this basis. Further, it takes the Shenzhen Luotian Reservoir-Tiegang Reservoir water transmission tunnel project as a case, the model is used for qualitative and quantitative analysis, and the results show that the theoretical maximum complexity value of the project is 10.750 6, the actual complexity value is 8.918 2, the relative complexity level is 83%, and the weighted complexity value is 23.037 4, which indicates that the complexity of the project is at a high level, and proves that the Markov chain-entropy model can be used to analyze the sustainable development trend of megaprojects and predicted for decision making and control.
作者
李永科
鲁新生
黄东杰
刘钰洋
罗岚
Li Yongke;Lu Xinsheng;Huang Dongjie;Liu Yuyang;Luo Lan(Shenzhen Water Engineering Construction Management Center,Shenzhen 518048,China;Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited,Hangzhou 311122,China;School of Public Policy and Administration,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第24期166-174,共9页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“重大工程复杂性动态演化、形成机理及适应性治理研究”(72061025),“重大工程项目多元治理机制的策略匹配及效应涌现研究”(71901113)
江西省自然科学基金项目“重大基础设施工程项目复杂性的动态度量及治理策略匹配研究”(20212ACB214014)。
