摘要
分析径流量的长期变化趋势并研究其影响因素是高效利用地区水资源的前提。为明确气候变化与人类活动对渭河甘肃段径流的影响,利用Mann-Kendall方法和R/S方法,分析了渭河甘肃段径流、降水与气温等水文气象要素的变化趋势;利用小波分析对径流的周期性特征进行了研究;通过Mann-Kendall方法与累积距平法判定了径流变异年份,并将整个研究周期分为基准期与人类影响活动期;通过累积量斜率变化率法定量计算了气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明:(1)1953—2010年,渭河甘肃段径流量与降水量整体呈下降趋势,气温呈显著上升趋势。(2)径流突变出现在1991年,人类活动影响期较基准期径流量下降8.02亿m3,其中气候变化对径流量减少贡献率为37.57%,人类活动影响占比62.43%。综上,人类活动对径流的影响占据主导。研究阐明了渭河甘肃段未来水文气象变化趋势,并对径流变化驱动因素的定量分析,为地区水资源的高效利用提供了理论依据。
Analyzing the long-term variation trend of runoff and studying its influencing factors are the premise of efficient utilization of regional water resources.In order to reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff in the Weihe River in Gansu section,runoff,precipitation and temperature were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall Test and R/S method in this study.The periodic characteristics of runoff were studied by Wavelet analysis.The year of runoff variation was determined by Mann-Kendall Test and cumulative anomaly method,and the whole study period was divided into the base period and the anthropogenic period.The contribution of different driving factors to runoff change was calculated quantitatively by using the method of cumulative slope change rate.The results showed that:(1)from 1953 to 2010,the runoff and precipitation in the Weihe River in Gansu section showed a decreasing trend,and the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend;(2)the abrupt change of runoff occurred in 1991,and the runoff decreased by 802 million cubic meters in the anthropogenic period compared with the base period;the contribution rate of climate change to the decrease of runoff was 37.57%,and the anthropogenic effect accounted for 62.43%.To sum up,the impact of human activities on runoff is dominant.This study clarifies the hydrometeorological trend of the Weihe River in Gansu section in the future,and makes a quantitative analysis of the driving factors of runoff change,which can provide a theoretical basis for the efficient utilization of regional water resources.
作者
田晋华
李正勤
柯浩成
梁靓
田孟涵
高金芳
TIAN Jinhua;LI Zhengqin;KE Haocheng;LIANG Liang;TIAN Menghan;GAO Jinfang(Lanzhou Soil and Water Conservation Scientific Experimental Station,Gansu Provincial Water Resources Department,Lanzhou 730020,China;Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期183-189,共7页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
甘肃省水利科研技术推广项目(甘水建管发[2021]71号、[2020]46号)
国家自然科学基金项目(4210070887)。
关键词
径流演变
气候变化
人类活动
驱动因素
渭河甘肃段
runoff evolution
climate change
human activities
driving factors
Weihe River in Gansu section
