摘要
为防范精细化工园区事故风险,提出了基于熵权-云模型的脆弱性评价方法。首先,引入物料的脆弱性,构建“人员、设施、物料、环境”4个维度的脆弱性评估指标体系,其次采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,运用云模型对精细化工园区进行脆弱性等级评价,最后以3个典型的精细化工园区为例开展实例分析,验证方法的合理性与有效性。结果表明:所采用的先逆向后正向正态云发生器,能够有效将定性概念和定量数据相互转换;脆弱性从大到小依次为响水化工园区、杭州湾上虞经济技术开发区、连云港化学工业园区;人员素质、物料存放、园区选址、园区内企业布局是研究脆弱性最重要的影响因素。
In order to prevent accident risks in fine chemical parks,a vulnerability evaluation method based on entropyweight-cloud model is proposed.Firstly,for the material concentration in the fine chemical park,on the basis of the existing three dimensions of“personnel,facilities and environment”,the vulnerability and stability of materials are considered,and a vulnerability assessment system of four dimensions of“personnel,facilities,materials and environment”is constructed.Secondly,the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of the evaluation indexes,and the cloud model is applied to evaluate the vulnerability level of the fine chemical park considering the randomness and fuzziness of the index system,and finally,three typical fine chemical parks,such as sub-provincial chemical parks,national economic and technological development zones and provincial chemical parks,are selected for example analysis to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the method.The research results show that the entropy weighting method adopted in this paper can effectively determine the evaluation index weights,and the inverse and then forward normal cloud transponders can effectively convert the qualitative concept of vulnerability of fine chemical parks with their index weights and quantitative data scored by experts,and the cloud model graph obtained can visually show the vulnerability size of three typical fine chemical parks;the order of vulnerability size is Reshui Chemical Park>Hangzhou Bay Shangyu Economic and Technological Development Zone>Lianyungang Chemical Industry Park,the quality of personnel,material storage,park location,and the layout of enterprises in the park are the most important factors influencing the vulnerability of fine chemical parks,among which the vulnerability of personnel and material is the most important and is the focus of urgent attention and the aspect that needs improvement at present.
作者
刘丹
孙晓云
王喆
范铃铃
LIU Dan;SUN Xiao-yun;WANG Zhe;FAN Ling-ling(China Emergency Management Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期1-7,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CTQ022)。
关键词
安全工程
精细化工园区
脆弱性
熵权法
云模型
safety engineering
fine chemical industry park
vulnerability
entropy weight method
cloud model
