摘要
CO_(2)地质封存为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标提供了重要手段,同时也为生态产品价值实现提供了新路径。构建STIRPAT模型,对内蒙古2019-2030年碳排放量进行预测,并利用CCUS技术对内蒙古CO_(2)地质封存潜力进行评估,进而提出利用CO_(2)地质封存实现生态产品价值的路径。结果显示:2030年内蒙古能源消费碳排放量在12.99-16.83亿t之间,与碳达峰排放强度约束下的排放量存在10.03-13.87亿t的剪刀差;利用CO_(2)深部咸水层封存技术潜力最大,达到59.38亿t,利用CO_(2)-ECBM、CO_(2)-EOR和CO_(2)-EGR分别可实现34.45亿t、18.58亿t和15.02亿t CO_(2)地质封存;利用CO_(2)地质封存技术,可助力内蒙古实现碳达峰、碳中和目标;将封存的CO_(2)在碳市场上进行交易,从而获得生态补偿,利用CO_(2)地质封存得到的内蒙古生态产品价值总量约为3134.08亿元。上述CO_(2)地质封存技术路径,对内蒙古实现“公正转型”,完善横向和纵向生态产品保护补偿机制,推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型具有重要意义。
CO_(2)geological storage not only provides an important means to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,but also provides a new path to realize the value of ecological products.The STIRPAT model was used to predict the carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2019 to 2030,after which the potential of CO_(2)geological storage of Inner Mongolia was evaluated under the application of CCUS technology,and then the realization path of ecological product value of CO_(2)geological storage was proposed.The results show that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Inner Mongolia in 2030 is in the range of 1,299-1,683 million tons,and there is a difference of 1,003-1,387 million tons with the emission that constrained under the carbon emission intensity.In addition,deep saline storage of CO_(2)has the greatest potential which may reach 5,938 million tons,CO_(2)-ECBM,CO_(2)-EOR and CO_(2)-EGR will be able to achieve 3,445 million tons,1,858 million tons and 1,502 million tons of CO_(2)geological storage,respectively.Using CO_(2)geological storage technology can help to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in Inner Mongolia.The CO_(2)stored by CO_(2)geological storage technology is currently traded on the carbon market to get the ecological compensation and realize the value of ecological products.The total value of the ecological products in Inner Mongolia is approximately 313.408 billion yuan.The CO_(2)geological storage technologies mentioned above bear a great significance for Inner Mongolia to realize the“fair transformation,”as well as improving horizontal and vertical compensation mechanism of ecological product protection,while also promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.
作者
张阳
孙佳文
赵海东
乔婷
ZHANG Yang;SUN Jiawen;ZHAO Haidong;QIAO Ting(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010021;School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010021;Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,China)
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期19-26,共8页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
内蒙“草原英才”创新团队滚动支持项目(12000-1210231320)
内蒙古社科规划重点项目(2019ZJD022)
内蒙古自治区高等学校科学技术研究项目(NJSY22322)资助。
关键词
碳达峰
碳中和
CCUS技术
碳封存
生态产品价值
carbon peak
carbon neutrality
CCUS technology
CO_(2)geological storage
ecological product value
