摘要
针对目前国内外缺乏对风电场微观区域风速随高度订正模型以及对风机实际高度处风速变化特征研究的现状,本文利用多层结构测风塔一个完整年观测数据以及1980年—2020年10m高气象观测站资料,建立不同高度层风速随10m风速折算系数,并将近40年10m高气象观测站资料反演至70m高度,采用线性拟合、核密度估计、M-K突变检验、小波变换等方法,研究70m高层风速演变规律。研究表明:不同高度层风速与10m风速均存在较强相关性关系,30m、60m、70m风速随10m风速折算系数分别为0.41、0.23、0.21;70m风速每10年下降0.14m/s,且对核密度估计窗口宽度、核函数选取进行比选,显示年份平均风速集中在5m/s~8m/s之间;1991年、2003年为70m风速两个突变年份;存在3年至5年小尺度、20年中尺度、20年至32年长尺度变换周期,并进一步验证风速突变年份。
In view of the current lack of research on the wind speed correction model with height in the micro region of wind farms at home and abroad and the characteristics of wind speed changes at the actual height of wind turbines,this paper uses a complete annual observation data of multi-layer wind towers and the data of 10 m high meteorological observation stations from 1980 to 2020 to establish the wind speed conversion factor with 10 m wind speed at different levels,and the data of 10 m high meteorological observation stations for nearly 40 years are retrieved to 70 m height,and linear fitting is adopted kernel density estimation,M-K mutation test,wavelet transform and other methods are used to study the evolution law of wind speed in 70m high-rise.The results show that there is a strong correlation between wind speed at different altitudes and 10m wind speed,and the conversion factor of 30m,60m and 70m wind speed with 10m wind speed are 0.41,0.23 and 0.21 respectively.The 70m wind speed decreases by 0.14m/s every 10 years,and the width of the nuclear density estimation window and the selection of the kernel function are compared,showing that the annual average wind speed is concentrated between 5~8m/s;1991 and 2003 are two abrupt years of 70m wind speed.There are 3-5 year small-scale,20 year mescal,20-32 year long scale transformation cycles,and further verify the sudden change year of wind speed.
作者
姜苏
徐培培
李逍
何慧君
张超
JIANG Su;XU Peipei;LI Xiao;HE Huijun;ZHANG Chao(East China Branch of Power China Renewable Energy Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310000,Zhejiang,China;Sinohydro Rudong New EnergyCo.,Ltd.,Nantong 226000,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《电力大数据》
2022年第12期52-59,共8页
Power Systems and Big Data
关键词
风速
折算系数
核密度估计
周期
相关性
wind speed
conversion factor
kernel density estimation
period
relevance
