摘要
以内循环为主,构建范围更大、层次更高、结构多元的高质量外循环对我国经济社会发展意义重大。新发展格局中,东道国市场需求不仅是外循环伸展的基础动力,同时也是影响对外直接投资(OFDI)地理分布的关键因素。文章主要探究新发展格局下东道国及其周边国家市场需求与中国OFDI的经济联系,瞄准以下三方面:第一,分析东道国市场需求对中国OFDI的定量影响;第二,引入“第三国”效应,实证东道国周边国家市场需求对中国在东道国OFDI的空间经济影响;第三,引入经济复杂性变量,剖析其在东道国市场需求与中国OFDI关系中的调节作用。研究结论表明:首先,我国OFDI整体上呈现趋近东道国市场需求的特性,东道国经济复杂性强化该特性。其次,引入“第三国”效应后,东道国周边国家市场需求具有显著正向空间溢出效应,东道国周边国家旺盛的市场需求会刺激中国对东道国投入更多OFDI;最后,引入经济复杂性的空间溢出效应被促进,说明加工体系越完善、技术水平越高的东道国不仅依据自身特性吸引中国OFDI,而且辐射其经济影响,帮助周边其他东道国获得中国投资者青睐。文章研究不仅丰富了新兴国家OFDI投资动机及其影响因素的相关探讨,而且为新形势下我国OFDI发展逻辑寻找历史与经验依据,并结合新发展格局价值内涵为OFDI发展提供针对性建议。
The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to accelerate the establishment of the new development paradigm featuring dual circulation,in which domestic and overseas markets reinforce each other,with the domestic market as the mainstay. This is a major strategic deployment made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core to adapt to the world’s unprecedented changes in a century and accelerate changes,focusing on the fact that China is about to enter a new stage of development. It is of great significance to China’s economic and social development to build a high-quality external circulation with a larger scope,higher levels and multiple structures,focusing on internal circulation. In the new development paradigm,the market demand of the host country is not only the basic driving force for the extension of the external circulation,but also the key factor affecting the geographical distribution of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),and its theoretical and practical value should be further explored.The article mainly explores the economic connection between the market demand of the host country and its neighboring countries and China’s OFDI under the new development paradigm,and the role of economic complexity in regulating the influence of the host country’s market demand on China’s OFDI,mainly aiming at the following three aspects:First,analyze the quantitative impact of the market demand of the host country integrating the depth,breadth and density of the demand on China’s OFDI. Second,introduce the“third country”effect to demonstrate the spatial economic impact of market demand in the host country’s neighboring countries on China’s OFDI in the host country,and test the positive and negative nature of the spatial spillover effect. Third,introduce economic complexity variables,analyze its moderating role in the relationship between host country market demand and China’s OFDI. The research conclusions show that:First,China’s OFDI as a whole has the characteristics of approaching the market demand of the host country,and the economic complexity of the host country will strengthen this characteristic. Second,after the introduction of the“third country”effect,the market demand of the host country’s neighboring countries has a significant positive spatial spillover effect,and the strong market demand of the host country’s neighboring countries will stimulate China to invest more OFDI in the host country. Finally,the spatial spillover effect of introducing economic complexity is promoted,indicating that the host country with a more complete processing system and higher technical level not only attracts Chinese OFDI according to its own characteristics,but also radiates its economic influence and helps other neighboring host countries to gain the favor of Chinese investors.The research in this paper not only enriches the discussion of the investment motivation and influencing factors of OFDI in emerging countries,but also finds a historical and empirical basis for the development logic of OFDI in China under the new situation,and provides targeted suggestions for the development of OFDI in combination with the value connotation of the new development paradigm.
作者
符磊
周李清
Fu Lei;Zhou Liqing
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期46-70,共25页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目《中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的技术利益共享与保护机制研究》(20BJL063)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目青年基金《新兴国家跨国公司技术溢出效应对世界产业技术格局影响研究》(19YJC790029)资助。
