摘要
自然灾害、恐怖袭击和全球经济金融危机等重大风险发生会对经济活动和金融稳定造成巨大冲击。本文从商品需求侧与商品供给侧引入重大风险冲击并将“双金融摩擦”引入新凯恩斯DSGE模型来探究重大风险冲击的经济波动效应与金融风险效应,并分析财政货币政策对重大风险冲击的调控效果。研究发现:第一,在“金融加速器”作用下,重大风险冲击通过推高企业贷款违约概率导致金融风险水平上升和经济衰退。第二,当重大风险冲击对商品需求侧的影响大于对商品供给侧的影响时,经济波动加剧、金融风险水平上升。第三,下调企业所得税通过改善企业与商业银行的资产负债表降低金融风险;下调无风险利率虽然能够削弱重大风险冲击对经济波动的负向影响,但会导致金融风险积累。因此,为应对重大风险冲击,中国应做好对困难企业的财政支持与信贷支持,提高财政货币政策防范和化解宏观经济下行风险与金融风险的能力。
The impact of significant risk shocks such as natural disasters, terrorism, and global financial crises has substantially affected economic activities and financial stability.Based on the framework of the New Keynesian DSGE model, this article firstly describes the effect of significant risk shock on China′s economic fluctuation and financial risk from the perspectives of the commodity demand side and commodity supply side, and then evaluates the regulation effect of fiscal and monetary policies.The results show that under the “financial accelerator” mechanism, significant risk shock increases the probability of enterprise default, which leads to a rise of financial risk and a further economic downturn. When the impact of significant risk shock on the commodity demand side is greater than that on the commodity supply side, significant risk shock leads to the intensification of economic fluctuation and increases financial risks. Reducing enterprise income tax improves the balance sheet condition of enterprise and commercial bank, which in turn lowers systematic financial risk. A reduction in interest rate reduces the negative impact of significant risk shock on economic fluctuation, but financial risks get further accumulated.With the significant risk shock, this paper gives two main suggestions. Firstly, China should provide financial and credit support to enterprises in difficulty to reduce the impact of significant risk shock on the commodity demand and supply sides.Secondly, China should improve the ability of fiscal and monetary policies to prevent and resolve macroeconomic downside risks and financial risks.
作者
杨翱
金昊
赵向琴
陈国进
Yang Ao;Jin Hao;Zhao Xiangqin;Chen Guojin(College of Economics,Shenzhen University;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University;School of Economics,Xiamen University;The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期25-37,共13页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“罕见灾难冲击、宏观经济下行与宏观经济政策调控研究”(20&ZD055)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融不确定性冲击和宏观经济下行风险管理”(72171201)
国家自然科学基金青年项目“金融开放、银行信贷结构与经济波动-动态理论与实证分析”(72003160)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“时变灾难风险的经济波动效应与宏观经济政策应对研究”(22YJC790151)
深圳市高等院校稳定支持计划项目“‘双碳’目标下清洁能源转换效率测度与财政政策研究”(20220807184432001)
闽都中小银行教育发展基金会资助。
关键词
重大风险冲击
经济波动
金融风险
财政政策
货币政策
Significant Risk Shock
Economic Fluctuation
Financial Risk
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
