摘要
基于2010—2019年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型实证分析了人口、土地、经济多维度城镇化对交通运输业碳排放水平长期和短期的影响机制及空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:中国交通运输业碳排放存在显著的空间相关性和“时间惯性”:①人口城镇化、土地城镇化和经济城镇化都对本地区交通运输业碳排放产生显著的促进作用,且长期影响要大于短期影响,其中,人口城镇化是推动本地区交通运输业碳排放增长的主要动力,人口城镇化对相邻地区存在显著的正向空间溢出效应;②分区域来看,人口城镇化会显著抑制东部地区交通运输业碳排放的增长,但能够促进中西部地区交通运输业碳排放的增长,而东、中、西地区土地城镇化和经济城镇化对交通运输业碳排放均产生显著的正向促进作用;东、中部地区人口城镇化对交通运输业碳排放产生显著的正向溢出效应,东部地区经济城镇化具有显著的正向溢出效应;③分阶段来看,两个阶段城镇化(人口、土地和经济)对交通运输业碳排放的长期影响均普遍高于短期影响,城镇化对交通运输业碳排放的影响程度在不断加深。
Based on panel data of 30 provinces(Due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include Tibet Region,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.)of China from 2010 to 2019,a dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to empirically analyze the long-term and short-term spatial spillover effects of multi-dimensional urbanization in terms of population,land and economy on the carbon emission of transportation industry. The results show that there are significant spatial correlations and“temporal inertia”in the carbon intensity of transport industry in China.Population urbanization,land urbanization and economic urbanization all have a significant role in promoting the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the region,and the long-term impact is greater than the short-term impact. Among them,population urbanization is to promote the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the region. The main driving force of growth;population urbanization has a significant positive spatial spillover effect on adjacent areas. From a regional perspective,population urbanization will significantly inhibit the growth of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the eastern region,but it can promote the growth of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the central and western regions. Urbanization has a significant positive role in promoting carbon emissions in the transportation industry,population urbanization in the eastern and central regions has a significant positive spillover effect on carbon emissions in the transportation industry,and economic urbanization in the eastern region has a significant positive spillover effect effect. In terms of stages,the long-term impact of urbanization(population,land and economy)on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry is generally higher than the short-term impact in the two stages,and the impact of urbanization on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry is deepening.
作者
田泽
肖玲颖
刘超
王雨璇
任阳军
Tian Ze;Xiao Lingying;Liu Chao;Wang Yuxuan;Ren Yangjun(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第1期141-153,共13页
Journal of Technology Economics
基金
2021年国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“数字经济赋能制造业高质量发展与产业化实现研究”(21FJYB047)
中央高校科研业务专项资助“高质量共建海上丝路背景下中国与几内亚湾国家海洋经济合作”研究(B220207035)
中央高校科研业务专项资助“区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)框架下中国制造业价值链重构机制、空间优化及对策研究”(B210207018)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目“‘双碳’背景下数字经济赋能江苏制造业绿色转型的关键问题与创新路径研究”(2022SJZDA083)
南京市软科学研究计划重点项目“数字经济创新驱动南京重点产业‘智改数转’高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(202206005)。
关键词
城镇化
交通运输业碳排放
空间溢出效应
动态空间杜宾模型
urbanization
the carbon emission of transport industry
spatial spillover effect
dynamic spatial Durbin model
