摘要
在对湖南省绿色食品产业发展现状进行分析的基础上,采用灰色模型对2022—2026年湖南省绿色食品产业产量和产值的发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明:湖南省绿色食品产业发展现状较好,近十年产量年均增长率达3.69%,近八年产值年均增长率35.79%;湖南省绿色食品产业有较大的发展潜力,预测2022—2026年产量、产值年均增长率分别可达5.13%、11.69%。分析了湖南省绿色食品产业发展潜力较大的原因和存在的不足,目前产品以农林产品及粗加工产品为主,结构单一,深加工能力不足;销售方面具有一定的经济效益,但出口基数小、发展缓慢。建议结合湖南绿色食品产业特点,采取加快科学技术的研究步伐,推动“湘字号”品牌建设,扩大示范基地规模,保障产品质量等措施,切实提高湖南省绿色食品产业竞争力。
This paper has made an analysis on the current situation of Hunan green food industry development,and a prediction for the 2022-2026 development trend of yield and output value of Hunan green food industry with the help of grey forecasting model.The results show that Hunan green food industry presents a good development status;it reaches a 3.69%average annual growth rate of production in recent 10 years and a 35.79%average annual growth rate of output value in recent 8 years.That is to say,Hunan green food industry has good development potential.It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of production and output value will reach 5.13%and 11.69%,respectively during 2022-2026.Furthermore,the causes of the great development potential of Hunan green food industry,and the existing shortcomings have been analyzed.At present,the industry mainly focuses on agricultural and forestry products and roughly processed products,with a single structure and insufficient deep processing capacity;there are certain economic benefits in sales,but the export base is small and the development is slow.It is recommended to accelerate science and technology research,promote the construction of"Xiang"brand,increase the size of demonstration bases and quality gurantee,etc.according to the industy characteristics,thus increasing the competitiveness of Hunan green food industry.
作者
刘林奇
蔡颖颖
王辛月
LIU Lin-qi;CAI Ying-ying;WANG Xin-yue(College of Economics and Management,Hunan Institute of Science and Technology,Yueyang 414000,PRC)
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2023年第2期93-98,共6页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
湖南省自科基金(2021JJ30305)
湖南理工学院研究生科研创新项目(YCX2021A34)。
关键词
绿色食品产业
产量
产值
灰色预测模型
湖南
green food industry
production
output value
grey forecasting model
Hunan
