摘要
研究目的:探究多情景休耕对国家粮食安全的影响,为耕地保护、国土空间生态修复提供依据。研究方法:因子评价、意愿调查和情景模拟分析。研究结果:(1)休耕迫切性、规模和空间分布受耕地资源环境本底硬约束控制,重度污染、中度污染、一级生态保护红线范围、地下水重度超采和质量劣等耕地分别占1.23%、2.31%、3.57%、0.68%和3.69%,应全部纳入休耕。(2)当前农户休耕意愿偏低,全国仅2.17%农户参与意愿高,84.92%的农户休耕意愿低或不愿意。不同情景下休耕需求差异显著,表现为生态安全优先情景(PES,20.57%)>农户意愿优先情景(PFW,18.98%)>食品安全优先情景(PFS,15.30%)。(3)不同情景下休耕导致的产能损失显著差异,全面执行休耕潜在的粮食产能损失率为PES(17.32%)>PFW(14.36%)>PFS(13.66%),对粮食安全有负面影响。遵循农户意愿合理安排时序,可确保近期、中期、远期休耕造成的粮食产能损失完全不影响中国2025年、2030年和2035年实现粮食高度自给。研究结论:实施休耕既要考虑耕地资源环境本底状况和农户意愿,也要减轻对粮食安全的影响,从而缓解耕地污染、保护生态和维护国家粮食安全。
The purposes of this study are to explore the appropriate scale,spatial distribution of different fallow scenarios under the multi-criteria objectives and their impacts on food production in China,and to provide scientific basis for national food security,and ecological protection and restoration of territorial space.The research methods used include factor evaluation,willingness investigation analysis and scenario simulation analysis.The results of this study are as follows:1)the urgency of fallow,the scale,and the spatial distribution of fallow in different regions are controlled by the resources and environmental background value of cultivated land.Severely and moderately polluted cultivated land,cultivated land within the first-level ecological protection red line,cultivated land with severe overexploitation of groundwater,and cultivated land of inferior quality account for 1.23%,2.31%,3.57%,0.68%,and 3.69%of national cultivated land,and should all be included in fallow.2)At present,the willingness of farmers to participate in fallow is low.Only 2.17%of farmers have high willingness to fallow,and 84.92%of farmers have low or unwillingness to fallow in China.The results of multi-scenario simulation indicate ecological security priority scenario(PES,20.57%)>the farmers’willingness priority scenario(PFW,18.98%)>food safety priority scenario(PFS,15.30%).3)The grain production capacity loss caused by fallow under different scenarios is significantly different.The potential loss rate of grain production capacity of full implementation fallow is PES(17.32%)>PFW(14.36%)>PFS(13.66%),which has a negative impact on food security.Reasonable arrangement of the time sequence in accordance with the farmers’willingness priority scenario can ensure that the loss of grain production capacity caused by fallow in the short term,medium term and long term cannot affect the realization of a high degree of food self-sufficiency in 2025,2030 and 2035in China.In conclusion,the implementation of fallow at the national level should not only consider the resources and the environmental background conditions of cultivated land and farmers’willingness,but also reduce the negative impact on food security,to mitigate soil pollution,protect ecology and maintain national food security.
作者
陈浮
曾思燕
马静
刘俊娜
于昊辰
孙燕
CHEN Fu;ZENG Siyan;MA Jing;LIU Junna;YU Haochen;SUN Yan(School of Public Administration,Hohai University,Nanjing 210096,China;School of Engineering,Westlake University,Hangzhou 310024,China;School of Public Policy and Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期90-101,共12页
China Land Science
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD06B02)
江苏省自然资源科技计划项目(2022042)。
关键词
耕地休耕
土壤污染
农户意愿
情景模拟
粮食安全
cultivated land fallow
soil pollution
farmers’willingness
scenario simulation
food security
