摘要
已发生的多起城投债技术违约和城投公司非标融资违约打破了城投债刚性兑付“信仰”,城投债的信用风险成为关注焦点.在国家实施城市群战略的背景下,基于长三角城市群生产要素引力网络,实证分析了城市群空间溢出对城投债信用风险的影响,发现:第一,城市群内部存在信用风险空间溢出,区域内城投债信用风险溢价同向变动.第二,其他城市尤其是外围城市金融发展的空间溢出呈正外部性,能够降低本城市城投债信用风险.第三,其他城市尤其是中心城市的经济发展可能存在负外部性,会导致本城市尤其是外围城市城投债的信用风险上升.为地方政府有效利用城市群发展机遇、合理制定财政政策以及防控区域系统性金融风险提供了借鉴.
The technical default of urban investment bonds and the default of urban investment companies’non-standard financing have broken the long-standing“belief”in the rigid payment of urban investment bonds,and the credit risk has become the focus of attention.Against the background of the implementation of the urban agglomeration strategy in China,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of urban agglomeration spatial spillover on the credit risk of urban investment bonds based on the gravitational network of production factors within the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration.The study finds that:1)There is a spatial overflow of credit risk within the urban agglomeration and the credit risk premiums of urban investment bonds in different cities fluctuate in the same direction.2)The financial development in other cities,especially peripheral cities,has a positive externality,which can reduce the credit risk.3)Economic development in other cities,especially the peripheral cities,has negative externalities,which can increase the credit risk.These results can provide a reference for local governments to make effective use of the development opportunities of urban agglomeration,reasonably formulate fiscal policies and prevent and control regional systemic risks.
作者
李昊骅
方立兵
姚楚涵
LI Hao-hua;FANG Li-bing;YAO Chu-han(School of Management and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210008,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期83-104,共22页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72001104,72071103)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2020M681538)
江苏省社会科学基金项目(22EYC002)
中央高校基本科研业务费原创与交叉研究培育基金项目(0118/14370107)。
