摘要
气候变化导致极端天气事件增多、经济损失增加。基于此,构建了一个包含碳循环、气候变化因素以及多个经济主体的DSGE模型,分析气候变化风险对宏观经济的影响,从理论和数值模拟来深入阐明气候变化对宏观经济的影响以及传导机制。研究结果显示,气候变化冲击对主要宏观经济变量产生负效应,导致产出、消费、投资、资产和福利水平下降,通胀率上升;同时,信贷政策有利于绿色激励作用,而提高碳价则倾向于对棕色产品厂商的约束作用。基于此建议明晰减缓气候变化责任,呼吁采取相应行动;在资金和政策上支持碳中和领域快速发展,促进碳密集型产品的负外部性内部化;积极制订适应气候变化政策,加强改善农业、能源等应对气候变化薄弱的环节。
Climate change will lead to an increase in extreme weather events and economic losses.Based on this,this paper constructs a DSGE model which includes carbon cycle,climate change factors and multiple economic agents,analyzes the impact of climate change risk on macro-economy,and expounds the impact and transmission mechanism of climate change on macro-economy from theoretical and numerical simulation.The results show that the impact of climate change has a negative effect on major macroeconomic variables,leading to a decline in output,consumption,investment,assets and welfare,and an increase in inflation.At the same time,the credit policy is conducive to green incentives,while increasing the carbon price tends to restrain the brown product manufacturers.Based on this suggestion,this research clarifies the responsibility of mitigating climate change and calls for corresponding actions to support the rapid development of carbon neutrality in terms of funds and policies,and promote the internalization of negative externalities of carbon-intensive products;we should actively formulate policies to adapt to climate change,and increase the improvement of agriculture,energy and other weak links to deal with climate change.
作者
侯宇恒
姚鸣奇
曲晓溪
张卓群
HOU Yuheng;YAO Mingqi;QU Xiaoxi;ZHANG Zhuoqun(College of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Institute of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Research Institute for Eco-Civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2023年第4期144-152,198,共10页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家留学基金资助项目(CSCNO.202204920019)
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“半参数Copula模型及其在经济领域非线性相关问题中的研究”(21FJYB026)。
