摘要
基于1960-2020年晋陕豫地区58个气象站点的逐日气象数据、农作物受灾面积数据,采用RClimDex极端气候指数法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、反距离权重插值分析极端气候事件的变化特征,通过相关分析研究极端气候对农业生产的影响.结果表明,研究区表征极端高温(低温)事件的指数呈上升(下降)趋势,20世纪90年代后变化特征更为显著;极端降水指数年代际变幅较大,无明显突变年份,年降水量微弱下降的同时降水强度与强降水量增加.空间上,极端高温指数呈大范围上升趋势,晋陕两省最为显著,河南省极端低温指数显著降低;降水事件趋于极端化,晋陕两省北部、陕南和河南中东部地区尤为显著.与年降水量、降水强度、强降水量呈极显著相关的洪涝和旱灾,是导致农作物受灾减产的主要农业气象灾害;未来农业生产中,晋中与陕西西南部地区受高温胁迫的可能性较大,晋陕北部地区应注意霜冻对农业生产的影响,晋陕两省北部、陕南和河南中东部地区需加强对极端降水事件的防范.
Based on the daily meteorological data from 58 meteorological stations in Shanxi,Shaanxi and He’nan Provinces from 1960 to 2020,the change characteristics of extreme climate events were analyzed by the RClimDex extreme climate index method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and inverse distance weight,and the influence of extreme climate on agricultural production was studied via a correlation analysis.The results showed that the index of extreme high temperature(low temperature)events in the study area presented an upward(downward)trend,and the change characteristics were more obvious after the1990s;the interdecadal variation of the extreme precipitation index was large,and no obvious mutation year was found.The annual precipitation decreased slightly,while the precipitation intensity and strong precipitation increased.In space,the extreme high temperature index showed a large-scale upward trend,the most obvious in Shanxi and Shaanxi Provinces,and the extreme low temperature index in He’nan Province decreased significantly;precipitation events tended to be extreme,especially in northern Shanxi and Shaanxi,southern Shaanxi and central and eastern He’nan.Floods and droughts extremely significantly related to annual precipitation,precipitation intensity and strong precipitation were the main agricultural meteorological disasters that led to crop failure and yield reduction;in the future agricultural production,there would be a greater possibility of high temperature stress in central Shanxi and southwestern Shaanxi.Northern Shanxi and northern Shaanxi should pay attention to the impact of frost on agricultural production.Northern Shanxi,southern Shaanxi,central and eastern He’nan should strengthen the prevention of extreme precipitation events.
作者
毛喜玲
殷淑燕
刘海红
MAO Xi-ling;YIN Shu-yan;LIU Hai-hong(College of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期71-79,共9页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42071112,41771110)。
关键词
极端气候指数
农业气象灾害
时空变化
晋陕豫
extreme climate index
agricultural meteorological disaster
temporal and spatial variation
Shanxi
Shaanxi and He’nan Provinces
