摘要
城市浅埋隧道开挖地面沉降短期预测是隧道安全施工的重要组成部分,通过适当减少灰色GM(1,1)模型维数,选择维数误差较小的灰色GM(1,1)模型,再利用马尔科夫模型对其进行精度修正,得到精确度较高更贴近实际地表沉降的预测值。以万州区北山隧道进口段地表沉降数据为基础,建立预测模型,结果表明:8维灰色GM(1,1)模型预测平均误差最小,在此模型基础上使用马尔科夫模型对预测值修正后,平均误差从0.80%下降为0.50%,模型预测精度得到提升,更符合地表沉降实际发展趋势。最后使用2种模型对未来3期沉降预测,经与实际值对比,灰色马尔科夫模型表现更加优越。
Short-term prediction of ground settlement during the excavation of shallow-buried tunnels in urban areas is an important part of tunnel construction safety.In this paper,by appropriately reducing the dimension of the grey GM(1,1)model and selecting a grey GM(1,1)model with smaller dimension error,the accuracy of the prediction value is improved by using a Markov model for precision correction,which is closer to the actual ground settlement.Based on the ground settlement data of the entrance section of the Beishan Tunnel in Wanzhou District,a prediction model is established.The results show that the 8-dimensional grey GM(1,1)model has the smallest average prediction error.After using the Markov model to correct the predicted values based on this model,the average error decreases from 0.80%to 0.50%,and the prediction accuracy of the model is improved,which is more in line with the actual development trend of ground settlement.
作者
俞高龄
Yu Gaoling(Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404020,China)
出处
《山西建筑》
2023年第7期116-118,共3页
Shanxi Architecture
