摘要
为了明确非洲猪瘟疫情发生后国内居民肉类消费结构的变动趋势,给后续制定和实施稳定生猪市场的政策提供依据,同时也能为以后研究其他动物疫病暴发后居民肉类消费行为变动提供一定参考。基于2015—2020年全国31个省(市、区)(除港澳台外)的面板数据,采用双重差分法从理论与实证两方面探究非洲猪瘟对居民肉类消费结构的影响,并运用调节效应模型对其作用机理进行验证。研究发现:第一,非洲猪瘟导致我国居民人均肉类消费总量下降明显,其中猪肉下降趋势最显著,禽肉作为猪肉的主要替代品消费量显著上升,虽然牛羊肉也起到了替代作用,但结果不显著。第二,非洲猪瘟对城乡居民肉类消费影响存在明显差异,农村居民与全国总体居民的消费变化方向一致,并且农村居民受非洲猪瘟影响更大;对城镇居民而言,非洲猪瘟也会降低其肉类总消费量和猪肉消费量,但并不显著,与农村居民不同的是禽肉与牛肉共同成为城镇居民选择的猪肉替代品。第三,居民可支配收入在非洲猪瘟对居民肉类总量与猪肉的消费影响中有显著调节作用,非洲猪瘟发生后可支配收入越低的省份,肉类总量与猪肉的消费下降越多。
To clarify the changing trend of meat consumption structure of domestic consumers after the outbreak of African swine fever to form a basis for the subsequent formulation and implementation of policies to stabilize the pig market,and to provide a reference for future research on the changes of meat consumption behaviors after the outbreak of other animal diseases.Based on a panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2015 to 2020,this paper explored the impacts of African swine fever on the meat consumption structure from both theoretical and empirical aspects by the difference-in-differences method and verified its mechanism by the moderating effect model.Results show that:(1)African swine fever has led to a significant decline in the total per capita meat consumption in China,of which pork has the most significant downward trend,and poultry meat has increased significantly as a main substitute for pork;(2)there are obvious differences in the impacts of African swine fever on meat consumption between urban and rural consumers.The consumption changes of rural consumers and the overall consumers of the country are consistent,and rural consumers are more affected by African swine fever.For urban consumers,African swine fever will also reduce their total meat consumption and pork consumption,but not significantly.Unlike rural consumers,poultry and beef together become pork substitutes selected by urban consumers;and(3)consumer’s disposable income has a significant regulatory effect on the impacts of African swine fever on consumers’total meat and pork consumption.The lower the disposable income becomes after the occurrence of African swine fever,the more the total meat and pork consumption declines.
作者
郝旺
石自忠
杨健卿
胡向东
HAO Wang;SHI Zi-zhong;YANG Jian-qing;HU Xiang-dong(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economic Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期142-152,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(72033009)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程(10-IAED-RC-06-2022)。
关键词
非洲猪瘟疫情
居民肉类消费
双重差分
调节效应
政策建议
African swine fever
meat consumption
difference-in-difference
moderating effect
policy proposal
