摘要
采用2006—2020年农业统计数据,对山东省农业产业结构进行定性与定量分析。利用产值增长率模型和回归模型,分析山东省农业各产业部门以及农业产业结构调整对农业经济增长的贡献率。结果表明,种植业对农业经济增长影响最大,其次为畜牧业、渔业和服务业,林业对农业经济增长影响最小;种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业、服务业产值每增加1%,农业总产值分别增加0.494%、0.006%、0.312%、0.134%、0.089%;农业产业结构调整对农业经济的影响呈负向增长。利用灰色关联分析法分析种植业与畜牧业内部各产业对种植业与畜牧业发展的影响度,发现小麦产量对种植业经济增长的影响最大,棉花对种植业经济增长的影响最小;猪肉产值对畜牧业经济增长的影响最大,羊肉对畜牧业经济增长的影响最小,其主要是由产量、市场、价格与创新能力四方面所致。
Using agricultural statistics data from 2006 to 2020,the agricultural industrial structure of Shandong Province was conduct⁃ed qualitative and quantitative analysis.By using the output value growth rate model and regression model,the contribution rate of agri⁃cultural industry sectors and agricultural industrial structure adjustment to agricultural economic growth was analyzed in Shandong Province.The results showed that planting industry had the greatest impact on agricultural economic growth,followed by animal hus⁃bandry,fishery and service industry,and forestry had the least impact on agricultural economic growth.When the output value of planting industry,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and service industry increased by 1%,the total output value of agriculture in⁃creased by 0.494%,0.006%,0.312%,0.134%and 0.089%,respectively.Adjustment of agricultural industrial structure showed neg⁃ative growth to agricultural economy.The grey correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influence of the internal industries of planting industry and animal husbandry on the development of planting industry and animal husbandry.It was found that the wheat yield had the greatest impact on the economic growth of planting industry,and the cotton had the smallest impact on the economic growth of planting industry;the output value of pork had the greatest impact on the economic growth of animal husbandry,while mut⁃ton had the smallest impact on the economic growth of animal husbandry,which was mainly caused by the output,market,price and innovation ability.
作者
王敏
王兆华
WANG Min;WANG Zhao-hua(School of Economics and Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,Shandong,China;Institute of Agricultural Information and Economics,Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Jinan 250100,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2023年第2期6-12,共7页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
山东省花生产业技术体系项目(SDAIT-04-10)。
关键词
农业产业结构调整
农业经济增长
种植业
畜牧业
adjustment of agricultural industrial structure
agricultural economic growth
planting industry
animal husbandry
