摘要
目的了解2013-2021年北京市西城区水痘疫情的时空分布特征,为更有效地控制水痘疫情暴发和流行提供科学依据。方法对西城区2013-2021年水痘病例资料,采用时空扫描统计方法探讨其时空分布特征。结果2013-2021年西城区共累计报告水痘6385例,平均发病率为58.09/10万。水痘发病具有明显季节性,主要集中在3-5月和10-12月。各街道发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=219.477,P<0.001),不同性别发病率差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=7.306,P=0.504),不同年龄组间发病率的差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=218.390,P<0.001)。空间自相关分析结果显示,2018年(Moran’s I=0.254,Z=2.482,P=0.023),2019年(Moran’s I=0.260,Z=2.546,P=0.017)和2021年(Moran’s I=0.272,Z=2.652,P=0.015)存在空间正相关,局部自相关显示,2018年西城区水痘发病率在白纸坊和广内街道呈局部高-高聚集模式,德胜街道呈局部高-低聚集模式,椿树和陶然亭街道呈局部低-低聚集模式。2019年广外、牛街、椿树和陶然亭街道呈局部低-低聚集模式。2021年,白纸坊街道呈局部高-高聚集模式,牛街和椿树街道呈局部高-低聚集模式,德胜、广外和陶然亭街道呈局部低-低聚集模式。时空扫描结果显示,2013-2021年北京市西城区水痘空间分布主要聚集区在广外、牛街、月坛、白纸坊街道(LLR=38.190,RR=1.57,P<0.001),次要聚集区在德胜、新街口街道(LLR=13.274,RR=1.65,P=0.005)。结论西城区水痘发病表现出一定的时空聚集性,春夏、夏秋交替的开学季,应对重点区域重点单位强化防控措施。
Objective To understand the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of varicella in Xicheng district,Beijing from 2013 to 2021,so as to provide scientific evidence for more effective control of the outbreak and epidemic of varicella.Methods The data of varicella cases in Xicheng district of Beijing from 2013 to 2021 were analyzed by spatiotemporal scanning statistical method.Results A total of 6385 cases of varicella were reported in Xicheng district of Beijing from 2013 to 2021,with an average annual incidence of 58.09 per 100000.The overall incidence of varicella showed markedly seasonal distribution,mainly concentrated in March-May and October-December.There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence of different sub-districts(χ^(2)=219.477,P<0.001),and no statistically significant difference in the incidence of gender(χ^(2)=7.306,P=0.504).There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence of age groups(χ^(2)=218.390,P<0.001).The result of spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there were positive spatial correlations of the incidence in 2018(Moran’s I=0.254,Z=2.482,P=0.023),2019(Moran’s I=0.260,Z=2.546,P=0.017)and 2021(Moran’s I=0.272,Z=2.652,P=0.015).The local autocorrelation showed that the high-high gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Baizhifang street and Guangnei street,the high-low gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Desheng street,and the low-low gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Chunshu street and Taoranting street in 2018.The low-low gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Guangwai street,Niujie street,Chunshu street and Taoranting street in 2019.The high-high gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Baizhifang street,the high-low gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Niujie street and Chunshu street,the low-low gathering areas were mainly concentrated in Desheng street,Guangwai street and Taoranting street in 2020.The spatial and temporal scanning result showed that there were first-level cluster areas in Guangwai street,Niujie street,Yuetan street,and Baizhifang street between 2013 and 2021(LLR=38.190,RR=1.57,P<0.001),while second-level cluster areas were distributed in Desheng street and Xinjiekou street(LLR=13.270,RR=1.65,P=0.005).Conclusions A certain characteristic of spatio-temporal clustering was shown in the varicella incidence in Xicheng district.In the school seasons,we should strengthen the prevention and control measures for key units in key areas.
作者
陈晶
王庆
门志红
CHEN Jing;WANG Qing;MEN Zhi-hong(Guangwai Community Health Service Center,Xicheng District,Beijing 100055,China;不详)
出处
《首都公共卫生》
2023年第1期24-27,共4页
Capital Journal of Public Health
基金
北京市西城区卫生健康委员会青年科技人才(科技新星)培养项目(编号:XWKX2020-13)。
关键词
时空分布
水痘
分布特征
Spatial and temporal distribution
Varicella
Distribution characteristics
