摘要
[目的/意义]本文基于认知失调构建了观点演化模型,有助于研究群体观点的演化趋势。这是从心理学角度为舆情治理提供了一个新思路,也是从以人为本的角度出发,拓展了舆情监管的理论研究。[方法/过程]首先通过分析个体对认知失调的缓解措施,总结分析出网络拓扑的动态机制;然后根据差异化的个体网络结构划分了各自的亲密度,再根据亲密度衡量对其他个体观点的接受度,构建了新的观点演化规则;最后通过调节参数来设置不同的心理环境进行仿真实验,模拟不同情况下的观点演化结果。[结果/结论]实验结果表明,在认知失调的环境中,群体意见的聚合效果更加显著;认知失调环境中个体的社交阈值越大,即对矛盾观点的容忍度越强,这越有利于社会共识的达成;面对群体中不同数量的顽固个体,若监管部门需达成不同的舆论引导效果,应采取差异化的治理措施。
[Purpose/Significance]It is a new direction to study the opinion evolution of micro-individuals from psychology to govern public opinion,which extends the theoretical research on people-oriented public opinion management.Based on cognitive dissonance,this paper constructs an opinion evolution model to study the group viewpoint trend.[Method/Process]First,the paper summarized the dynamic mechanism of network topology by analyzing the mitigation measures of individuals to cognitive dissonance.Then,according to the network structure,the intimacy degree of everyone was defined,and the acceptance of other individuals'opinions was measured by the intimacy degree,so a new opinion evolution rule was constructed.Finally,the paper set different psychological environments by adjusting the parameters and made the opinion simulation under different circumstances.[Result/Conclusion]The experimental results show that the aggregation of group opinion is more significant in the cognitive dissonance environment;The larger the social threshold of individuals in the cognitive dissonance environment is,the stronger the tolerance to contradictory opinions,which is conducive to the achieve social consensus;For different numbers of stubborn individuals in the group,if the supervision departments want to achieve different public opinion guidance effects,they should take differentiated governance measures.
作者
魏静
贾宇广
朱恒民
黄卫东
黎淑均
Wei Jing;Jia Yuguang;Zhu Hengmin;Huang Weidong;Li Shujun(School of Management,Nanjing University of Posts&Telecommunications,Nanjing 210003,China;Jiangsu University Philosophy and Social Science Key Research Base-Information Industry Integration Innovation and Emergency Management Research Center,Nanjing 210003,China;School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)
出处
《现代情报》
CSSCI
2023年第5期104-113,共10页
Journal of Modern Information
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于阈值的群体事件互联网舆情传递链路预测及监控机制研究”(项目编号:71704085)
国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于主路径网络的舆情传播态势预测与干预研究--以社会化媒体中舆情为对象”(项目编号:71874088)
国家自然科学基金资助项目“情感模型视阈下舆情传播的引导和阻断机制研究”(项目编号:72271128)
教育部人文规划基金项目资助“隐秩序下群体事件舆情迁移预测及干预机制研究”(项目编号:22YJA870015)
江苏省研究生创新与实践工程资助项目“舆情当事人影响下不同跟随者观点演化研究”(项目编号:KYCX21_0832)。
关键词
心理学
认知失调
动态网络
共同邻居
有界信任
用户观点
网络舆情
psychology
cognitive dissonance
dynamic network
common neighbors
bounded confidence
user opinion
network public opinion
