摘要
为分析中美社会物流成本评价指标“社会物流费用占GDP比重”内部影响因素的差异,本文设计了两阶段研究方法进行计算和验证。引入物流科技水平类指标(以科学研究与试验发展经费投入R&D指数计算)作为该评价指标的内部影响因素之一,探讨其对社会物流成本的关联作用,并提出将“社会物流费用占GDP比重”分解为“单位周转量物流费率”“平均运距”“单位GDP货运量”的乘积关系式,从这三个维度依次对中美物流成本进行评价分析。第1阶段,利用灰色系统关联理论计算GDP、三次产业占比以及R&D指数与该评价指标的关联度,分析结果表明,中美这三类参考指标与该评价指标的关联度均为正相关,但在GDP和R&D水平上的差异明显。第2阶段,基于数据驱动方法,分别比较分析经分解得到的三维评价指标,结果表明,中国单位周转量物流费率实际上要低于美国,但美国同等货运量产出的GDP要远高于中国,中国产业结构改革应推进物流业与服务业联合发展。针对以上分析结果,提出中国物流业降本增效的具体建议。
This paper proposes a two-stage research method to analyze the difference between the internal influencing factors of the social logistics cost evaluation indicator"the proportion of social logistics cost to Gross Domestic Product(GDP)"between China and the United States.The“logistics science and technology level(calculated by the R&D,Research and Development)”is introduced as one of the internal influencing factors of the evaluation indicator,and its relevance to social logistics costs is discussed.The"proportion of social logistics costs to GDP"is decomposed into the product of"logistics rate per unit turnover","average transportation distance"and"freight volume per unit GDP".The logistics costs of China and the United States are evaluated and analyzed from these three dimensions.In the first stage,the Grey System Correlation theory is used to calculate the correlation between the three indicators(GDP,the proportion of three industries,and the R&D level)and the evaluation index.The results show that the correlation between the three reference indicators between China and the United States and the evaluation index is positive,but the difference between GDP and R&D level is obvious.In the second stage,based on the data-driven method,the three-dimensional evaluation indicators obtained by decomposition are compared and analyzed respectively.In fact,the results show that the“per unit turnover logistics cost”in China is lower than that in the United States,but the GDP output of the same freight volume in the United States is much higher than that in China.China's industrial structure reform should promote the joint development of logistics and service industries.Then the specific suggestions are provided for reducing costs and increasing efficiency of China's logistics industry based on the analysis results.
作者
樊东方
靳志宏
FAN Dong-fang;JIN Zhi-hong(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)
出处
《交通运输系统工程与信息》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期32-39,共8页
Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(71572023)。
关键词
交通运输经济
社会物流成本
评价指标
影响因素
指标分解
transportation economy
social logistics cost
evaluating indicator
influence factor
index decomposition
