摘要
提高出口产业水平是高质量参与国际经济循环的关键,汇率是重要的考量要素。本文从汇率波动与产业发展的理论关联切入,结合汇率不完全传递理论与产业结构的关系,分析汇率波动对出口产业结构的影响机理,进而构建动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟人民币汇率分别贬值1%~10%的情景,着重分析人民币汇率贬值5%时对中国出口产业结构的影响和作用大小。研究结果表明,人民币汇率升值(或贬值)对产业的影响存在异质性,3%~5%的人民币汇率波动范围对中国出口产业发展而言最有利。本文的研究意义在于,厘清人民币汇率波动如何影响中国出口产业结构优化,基于中国出口产业结构调整结果把握人民币汇率波动方向和幅度的合理范围,为新发展格局下中国出口产业结构升级的汇率机制及出口产业汇率政策的制定提供参考。
Improving the level of export industry is the key to high-quality participation in the international economic cycle,and exchange rate is an important factor to consider.Starting from the theoretical correlation between exchange rate fluctuations and industrial development,combined with the relationship between the incomplete pass-through theory of exchange rate and industrial structure,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on the export industrial structure,and then builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the scenario of RMB exchange rate depreciation of 1%-10%respectively.It focuses on the impact and effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation of 5%on China's export industrial structure.The results show that the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation or depreciation on the industry is heterogeneous,and the RMB exchange rate fluctuation range of 3%-5%is the most favorable for the development of China's export industry.The research significance of this paper is to clarify how RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect the optimization of China's export industrial structure,grasp the reasonable range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations based on the results of China's export industrial structure adjustment,and provide reference for the exchange rate mechanism of China's export industrial structure upgrading and the formulation of export industrial exchange rate policy under the new development pattern.
作者
陈瑶雯
莫敏
张桢林
范祚军
Chen Yaowen;Mo Min;Zhang Zhenlin;Fan Zuojun(College of ASEAN Studies,Guangxi Minzu University;School of Economic,Guangxi University;International College,Guangxi University)
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第4期63-79,共17页
Journal of Management World
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“‘一带一路’倡议和不确定性冲击背景下中国与东盟合作机制深化研究”(22AGJ014)的资助。
关键词
汇率波动
出口产业结构
可计算的一般均衡模型
exchange rate fluctuation
the industrial structure of export
computable general equilibrium model
