摘要
为开展草食畜牧业产业空间转移与影响因素研究,构建分区新型种养关系。基于1980—2020年中国31个省(市、自治区,统计数据未含港澳台地区)的面板数据,利用标准差椭圆方法,系统分析草食畜牧业的空间分布模式、转移特征及其演化过程;并以产业转移特征为基础,采用空间面板模型解释产业转移的影响因素。研究发现:中国草食畜牧业的空间依赖特征显著,整体趋势自西向东北转移,进一步研究发现产业重心整体上穿越了农牧分界线,总直线位移距离达505.36 km;空间面板模型显示影响产业转移的因素总体受到生产性土地比重、土地生产能力、人均GDP、城镇居民恩格尔系数、农业劳动生产率和机械化水平等6个因素的影响,其中土地生产能力是推动草食畜牧业由牧区向农区转移的关键因素;此外,不同时期又各有侧重,将长时间序列分解为3个时期,发现机械化、城镇化、水资源利用效率等因素是各时期产业布局的主要驱动力。本研究可为构建合理空间布局、优化要素配置,进而为草食畜牧业产业结构调整政策的制定提供依据。
Aims of this study are to investigate the spatial transfer and influencing factors of herbivorous animal husbandry industry and build a new type of planting and breeding relationship in different regions. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(the data do not include those of HongKong, Macao and Taiwan regions) from 1980 to 2020, the spatial distribution pattern, transfer characteristics and evolution process of herbivorous animal husbandry in China are systematically analyzed by using the standard deviation ellipse method. Based on the characteristics of industrial transfer, the spatial panel model is then used to reveal the influencing factors of industrial transfer. The results show that: The spatial dependence of herbivorous animal husbandry in China is significant, and the overall trend shifts from west to northeast. Further analysis shows that the industrial center of gravity crosses the dividing line of agriculture and animal husbandry as a whole, with a total linear displacement distance of 505.36 km;The spatial panel model shows that the factors affecting industrial transfer are generally affected by six factors including the proportion of productive land, land production capacity, per capita GDP, Engel coefficient of urban residents, agricultural labor productivity and mechanization level. Among them, the land production capacity is the key factor promoting the transfer of herbivorous animal husbandry from pastoral to agricultural areas;In addition, different periods have their own emphasizes. The long time series is divided into three periods. It is found that mechanization, urbanization, water resource utilization efficiency and other factors are the main driving forces of industrial layout in each period. This study can provide scientific basis for the formulation of industrial structure adjustment policy in the herbivorous animal husbandry.
作者
韩成吉
王国刚
张勇翔
董海宾
HAN Chengji;WANG Guogang;ZHANG Yongxiang;Dong Haibin(State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology/Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,China Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100091,China;College of Grassland Science/Key Laboratory of Efficient Forage Production Mode of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801,China)
出处
《中国农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期195-209,共15页
Journal of China Agricultural University
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA056)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41871184)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-01-2022)。
关键词
草食畜牧业
空间转移
影响因素
标准差椭圆
空间面板模型
herbivorous animal husbandry
influencing factors
spatial transfer
standard deviation ellipse
spatial panel model
