摘要
党的十九大提出将“防范化解重大风险”列为三大攻坚战之首,2021年中央经济工作会议专门提出,正确认识和把握防范化解重大风险,要做到精准拆弹。截至2021年末,据不完全统计,中国非金融企业合计约1万家,若按资产规模前5大企业对该行业有重大影响来看,合计企业约420家,而上述企业存量债务占资本市场企业债务的比例却超过了50%,大型企业风险即为防范化解重大风险的引爆点,及时掌握大型企业债务风险特征,对守住不发生系统性风险底线具有重要意义。本文选取近20年中国大型非金融企业数据,通过面板数据回归模型实证分析,得出大型企业债务风险的特征,并结合大型企业债务风险特征,提出金融风险监测预警、债券产品供给等方面的政策建议。
The Communist Party proposed at its 19th National Congress to list "preventing and resolving major risks" as the first of three major challenges. The 2021 Central Economic Work Conference specifically stated that it is important to correctly understand and grasp the need to prevent and resolve major risks, and to do so with precision. By the end of 2021, according to incomplete statistics, there were about 10 000 non-financial enterprises in China. If we look at the top five enterprises in their respective sectors in terms of assets, there are about 420 enterprises in total. At the same time, the outstanding volume of debt of the above enterprises accounts for more than 50% of the corporate debt in the capital market. The risks presented by large enterprises are the key to preventing and resolving major risks to the economy as a whole. Grasping the characteristics of debt risk from large enterprises is essential to ensuring the prevention of systemic risk. This paper draws on data from large non-financial enterprises in China over the past 20 years and uses a panel data regression model to derive the characteristics of the debt risk of large enterprises. It also makes policy recommendations on financial risk monitoring and early warning measures.
作者
俞洁
魏波
张婧宇
YU Jie;WEI Bo;ZHANG Jingyu(National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors)
出处
《金融市场研究》
2023年第3期83-93,共11页
Financial Market Research
关键词
大型企业
债务风险特征
短债长用
面板数据
Large Enterprises
Debt Risk Characteristics
Short-term Debt for Long-term Use
Panel Data
