摘要
【目的】建立林分因子和地形因子与森林地表可燃物载量之间的回归关系,对崇礼冬奥核心区华北落叶松林和白桦林森林地表可燃物载量进行估计,为研究区森林防火和可燃物管理提供科学依据。【方法】2021年在研究区设置63块华北落叶松林和白桦林实测样地,调查森林地表可燃物载量(灌木、草本、枯枝落叶和腐殖质的鲜质量和干质量)、林分因子(胸径、树高、冠幅等)和地形因子(坡度、海拔、土层厚度)。对森林地表可燃物数据进行处理、分析,以林分因子和地形因子为自变量、以森林地表可燃物总载量为因变量进行相关性分析,利用逐步筛选法,选择合适的模型形式。对因子进行逐步回归,筛选相关性强的因子,最终选用年龄、林分密度、植被盖度和海拔估算华北落叶松林森林地表可燃物总载量,选用林分密度、坡度和海拔估算白桦林森林地表可燃物总载量。并对崇礼冬奥核心区林地小班的森林地表可燃物载量进行预测。【结果】华北落叶松林森林地表可燃物总载量高于白桦林且差异显著(P<0.05)。相关性分析表明,林分因子的平均树高、平均胸径和郁闭度与森林地表可燃物总载量显著相关(P<0.05);地形因子的坡度和土层厚度与森林地表可燃物总载量显著相关(P<0.05)。由森林地表可燃物载量模型的构建可知,林龄、林分密度、植被盖度和海拔可用来估算华北落叶松林森林地表可燃物载量;林分密度、坡度和海拔可用来估算白桦林的森林地表可燃物总载量。2种森林类型森林地表可燃物载量预测模型的R2均大于0.6,P均小于0.01,检验指标显示模型具有较好的估测精度。【结论】华北落叶松林的可燃物载量大于白桦林,华北落叶松林更易发生森林火灾。不同森林类型森林地表可燃物载量的影响因子也不同,在进行可燃物管理时,要因地制宜选择不同的可燃物管理方法及调控措施。研究数据来源于崇礼冬奥核心区,森林地表可燃物载量模型只适用于崇礼冬奥核心区,对其他地区具有一定参考价值。模型选用的变量多为易得的调查因子,具有很好的实用性。
【Objective】By establishing the regression relationship between stand factors,terrain factors and forest surface combustible loads,the forest surface combustible loads of Larix principis-rupprechtii and Betula platyphylla in the core area of Chongli Winter Olympic Games were estimated,which provides a scientific basis for forest fire prevention and fuel management in this study area.【Method】On the basis of 63 sample plots set in the study area in 2021,this study took stand factors(stand age,average DBH,average tree height,stand density,canopy density,vegetation coverage),terrain factors(slope,altitude,soil layer thickness)and forest surface combustible loads(fresh and dry mass of bushes,herbs,litter and humus)as the research object.After processing the data of forest surface combustibles,the correlation analysis was carried out with stand factors and terrain factors as independent variables and forest surface combustible loads as dependent variable.In order to construct the optimal model form,the stepwise screening method was used to screen out the appropriate factors.Finally,stand age,stand density,vegetation coverage and altitude were selected to estimate the total surface combustible loads of L.principis-rupprechtii forest.Besides,stand density,slope and altitude were selected to estimate the total surface combustible loads of B.platyphylla forest.Based on this,the surface combustible loads of forest land sub-compartment in the core area of Chongli Winter Olympic Games were predicted.【Result】The total surface combustible loads of L.principis-rupprechtii forests were significantly higher than that of B.platyphylla forests(P<0.05).According to the correlation analysis among the stand factors,average tree height,average DBH and canopy density were significantly correlated with the total loads of surface combustibles(P<0.05).Among the terrain factors,slope and soil thickness were significantly correlated with the total loads of surface combustibles on the forest surface(P<0.05).It can be seen from the construction of forest fuel load model.Stand age,stand density,vegetation coverage and altitude could be used to estimate the total surface combustible loads of L.principis-rupprechtii forest.Stand density,slope and altitude could be used to estimate the total surface combustible loads of B.platyphylla forest.The determination coefficients of two forest type models were greater than 0.6 and the P values were less than 0.01.The model verification indicators also indicated that the models had good estimation accuracy.Through the two models,the total surface combustible loads of L.principis-rupprechtii forests and B.platyphylla forests in the core area of Chongli Winter Olympic Games were estimated and the distribution map was drawn.【Conclusion】The total surface combustible loads of L.principis-rupprechtii forests were significantly higher than that of B.platyphylla forests,so L.principis-rupprechtii forest might be more prone to forest fire.Moreover,the influence factors of forest surface combustible loads of different forest types were different.Therefore,when carrying out combustibles management,we should choose different management methods and control measures according to local conditions.Due to the research data source,the forest surface combustible loads models are only applicable to the core area of Chongli Winter Olympic Games,which has a certain reference value for other areas.Most of the variables in the models are easily available survey factors,which makes the models have good applicability and can provide basis for forest fire prevention.
作者
张状
宗树琴
闫星蓉
张浩
黄宏超
翟跃琴
符利勇
Zhang Zhuang;Zong Shuqin;Yan Xingrong;Zhang Hao;Huang Hongchao;Zhai Yueqin;Fu Liyong(Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques,CAF Beijing 100091;Key Laboratory of Forest Management and Growth Modeling,National Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing 100091;Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Chongli District,Zhangjiakou City,Hebei Province Zhangjiakou 075000;College of Forestry,Shanxi Agricultural University Jinzhong 030801)
出处
《林业科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第10期59-66,共8页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金
张家口市崇礼区森林防火综合体系建设无人机巡护监测系统(DA2020001)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(31971653)。
关键词
可燃物
载量
相关分析
冬奥会
线性回归
combustibles
carrying capacity
correlation analysis
Winter Olympics
linear regression
