摘要
对水资源进行合理的优化配置是缓解水资源短缺问题和遏制生态环境持续恶化的重要途径之一。为了实现水资源的可持续利用和生态环境的良性循环,该研究针对灌区水资源配置系统中存在的复杂性和不确定性,以黑龙江省建三江垦区为研究区,将水质污染治理成本(生态补偿费用)与系统经济收益相结合作为目标函数,引入离散区间、概率分布函数及模糊数表示系统中的多重不确定性,通过设置不同的可信性置信水平解决带有违规风险概率的模糊风险问题,进而建立考虑生态环境的区间两阶段模糊可信性约束规划模型。通过对模型求解,实现地表地下水资源在典型作物间合理的优化配置,得到不同来水情境下生态补偿费用、不同水源不同作物的最优配水方案及不同可信性置信水平下系统最大经济效益,结果表明:模型能够反映系统中的不确定性,有效平衡系统收益与违规风险,并通过满足生态需水和农业排污约束以促进系统经济效益和生态环境的协调发展;当来水水平分别为低、中、高3种流量时,研究区地表水生态补偿费用和地下水生态补偿费用均呈现下降的趋势;当可信性置信水平为1.0时,系统经济收益为29.88×10^(8)~52.18×10^(8)元,当可信性置信水平为0.5时,系统经济收益为31.17×10^(8)~53.44×10^(8)元,系统收益值随着可信性置信水平的降低而升高,管理者可根据实际情况和风险偏好选择科学合理的决策方案,以实现水资源的高效利用与可持续发展。该研究所构建的不确定性优化模型和作物配水结果可为类似地区的水资源优化配置提供参考。
Water has been one of the essential resources for human survival and development in the world.However,there are unprecedented water pressure and challenge with the rapid development of the social economy and the expansion of the population.The rational and optimal allocation is one of the effective ways to alleviate the shortage of water resources,and then curb the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment.Taking the Jiansanjiang region in Heilongjiang Province as an example,this study aims to develop an interval two-stage stochastic fuzzy credibility-constrained programming,particularly on the reasonable distribution of surface and groundwater resources for the typical crops under the conditions of uncertainty and complexity.The ecological environment was also considered to fully meet the ecological water requirement and compensation for the water quality pollution.The objective function was combined as the cost of water quality pollution treatment(ecological compensation cost)with the economic benefit of the system.The discrete intervals,probability distributions,and fuzzy variables were introduced into the programming framework to solve the multiple uncertainties.The interval two-stage stochastic programming was coupled with the fuzzy credibility-constrained programming,in order to solve the fuzzy risk with the probability of violation risk.Therefore,the failure risk of the system was set as the different credibility levels.The improved model was divided into two stages to determine the optimal target of water distribution and the optimal allocation of water among surface and groundwater.According to the system benefit,the target value of water distribution was firstly predefined for each crop,and then the penalty coefficient was used to appropriately adjust the water supply targets for the less economic loss of the system.The treatment(compensation)cost of the ecological environment was reflected in the cost of agricultural water.For instance,nitrogen and phosphorus were diluted to prevent pollution from the water environment.According to the outstanding probability characteristics of natural inflows,the predicted annual inflow was assumed to be high,middle,and low levels,and the probability was assumed to be 0.2,0.6,and 0.2,respectively.The available water presented both stochastic and fuzzy attributes,which were represented in the fuzzy sets using credibility theory.Other uncertain parameters were expressed in the interval form.The uncertainty model was solved to obtain the optimal water distribution scheme of crops using the interactive algorithm,in terms of the ecological environmental compensation costs under different inflow levels and water sources.The maximum economic benefits were achieved in the system under different credibility levels.The results showed that the improved model truly reflected the uncertainty of effectively balancing the system benefits and violation risks.The coordinated development of economic benefits was also promoted to fully meet the ecological water demand and agricultural pollution constraints in the system.More importantly,the ecological compensation cost decreased with the increase in the inflow level.When the inflow levels were low,medium,and high,the ecological compensation cost of surface water in the study area were 1442.18×10^(6)-2443.62×10^(6),1075.39×10^(6)-1921.47×10^(6),and 568.78×10^(6)-1509.16×10^(6)Yuan,respectively,while the ecological compensation costs of groundwater were 239.11×10^(6)-462.46×10^(6),160.18×10^(6)-283.06×10^(6),and 43.67×10^(6)-113.34×10^(6)Yuan,respectively.When the credibility level was 1.0,the maximum economic benefit of the system was between 29.88×10^(8),and 52.18×10^(8)Yuan.By contrast,the maximum benefit was between 31.17×10^(8),and 53.44×10^(8)Yuan at the credibility level of 0.5.The maximum benefit of the system increased with the decrease in credibility level.Consequently,the efficient and sustainable utilization of water resources can be achieved in reasonable decision-making schemes under the actual situation and risk preference.The uncertainty optimization model of crop water allocation can provide a strong reference for the optimal allocation of multiple water sources in similar irrigation areas.
作者
庞博
李天霄
孙彦坤
侯仁杰
李茉
吕博
张亮亮
PANG Bo;LI Tianxiao;SUN Yankun;HOU Renjie;LI Mo;LYU Bo;ZHANG Liangliang(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期102-112,共11页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52179033)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2019M651247)
黑龙江省博士后基金面上项目(LBH-Z19003)。
关键词
优化
生态
地表水
地下水
配置
不确定性
区间两阶段随机规划
模糊可信性约束规划
optimization
ecology
groundwater
underground water
allocation
uncertainty
interval two-stage stochastic programming
fuzzy credibility constrained model
