摘要
为研究气候变化对塔里木河干流流域潜在蒸散发的影响。选取塔里木河干流流域内10个气象站1961—2013年逐日地面气象数据,运用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和优势分析方法分析塔里木河干流流域不同时段潜在蒸散发动态变化及其定量气候驱动。结果表明:1961—2013年,塔里木河干流流域年、季潜在蒸散发均呈减少趋势,以1976年前冬季减幅最大,1976年后春季增幅最大,1976年为年潜在蒸散发的突变点。塔里木河干流流域年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度和降水量均极显著增加,日照时数极显著减少,且1976年前平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和日照时数的减幅均小于1976年后的增幅,1976年前相对湿度和降水量的增幅均小于1976年后的增幅。塔里木河干流流域潜在蒸散发的变化是由多种气象因子综合作用的结果,日照时数是年、季潜在蒸散发减少的主要气候驱动因子。1976年前,春、夏、冬、年潜在蒸散发的减少主要受日照时数的减少控制为主,贡献率分别为100.00%、67.56%、51.41%和52.20%,秋季潜在蒸散发的增加主要受日照时数的增加控制为主,贡献率为45.62%;1976年后,春、秋、年潜在蒸散发的增加主要受日照时数的增加控制为主,贡献率分别为38.10%、100.00%和70.64%,夏、冬季潜在蒸散发的减少主要受日照时数的减少控制为主,贡献率分别为74.06%和51.07%。
In order to study the influence of climate change on potential evapotranspiration,based on the meteorological date from ten meteorological stations from 1961 to 2013 in the main stream of Tarim River.The quantitative climate driving on potential evapotranspiration were analyzed by climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and advantage analysis method in the main stream of Tarim River.The results show that from 1961 to 2013,the annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration in the main stream basin of the Tarim River shows a decreasing trend,with the largest decrease in the winter before 1976 and the largest increase in the spring after 1976.In 1976,there is a mutation point of annual potential evapotranspiration.The annual average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,relative humidity and precipitation in the main stream of the Tarim River Basin increases significantly,and the sunshine hours decreases significantly.The decrease of average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature and sunshine hours before 1976 is less than the increase after 1976,and the increase of relative humidity and precipitation before 1976 is less than the increase after 1976.The change of potential evapotranspiration in the main stream of the Tarim River Basin is the result of the comprehensive action of various meteorological factors,and the sunshine hours are the main climatic driving factors for the reduction of potential evapotranspiration in the year and season.Before 1976,the decrease of potential evapotranspiration in spring,summer,winter and year is mainly controlled by the decrease of sunshine hours,with the contribution rate of 100.00%,67.56%,51.41%and 52.20%respectively.The increase of potential evapotranspiration in autumn is mainly controlled by the increase of sunshine hours,with the contribution rate of 45.62%.After 1976,the increase of potential evapotranspiration in spring,autumn and year is mainly controlled by the increase of sunshine hours,with contribution rates of 38.10%,100.00%and 70.64%respectively.The decrease of potential evapotranspiration in summer and winter is mainly controlled by the decrease of sunshine hours,with contribution rates of 74.06%and 51.07%respectively.
作者
牛建龙
王家强
程珍
吴凡
蒋学玮
NIU Jian-long;WANG Jia-qiang;CHENG Zhen;WU Fan;JIANG Xue-wei(College of Agriculture,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China;College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences,Tarim University,Alar 843300,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2023年第9期3655-3661,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(31860172)
兵团财政科技计划(2021DB015)
棉花生物学国家重点实验室开放课题(CB2021A29)
塔里木大学研究生科研创新计划(TDGRI202026)。
关键词
潜在蒸散发
动态变化
气候驱动
塔里木河干流流域
potential evapotranspiration
dynamic change
climate driving
in the main stream of Tarim River
