摘要
全球正在致力于探索有效的方法来减缓水风险,以提高气候适应能力。防洪问题具有自然和社会的双重属性,需要将基于自然的解决方案与社会制度手段进行结合,采取更为系统的战略实现对自然生态与社会生产的双重管理。运用参与式系统动力模型以及情景分析法,选取鄱阳湖为案例,综合考证基于自然的解决方案与社会制度手段在降低洪水风险上的潜力,以及衍生的社会、经济、生态的多种收益。研究结果表明:(1)基于自然的解决方案与社会制度通过不断反馈与循环的作用机理逐渐调节影响洪灾规模的关键要素,来达成防洪及减轻洪涝灾害的目的。(2)在防洪效益的基础上,基于自然的解决方案和社会制度手段还衍生出了生态、经济和社会方面的效益,但基于自然解决方案的效用发挥呈现出更明显的时滞性。(3)基于自然的解决方案与社会制度手段两种策略相辅相成,要发挥基于自然的解决方案的长期效用,在社会制度手段上需提升社会层面对防洪的安全意识、资金支持、机构合作、能力建设等;要保持社会制度手段的长期效用,也必须有一定基于自然的解决方案作为基础。研究认为因地制宜地选择两类管理手段相应措施的优化组合,更有利洪水风险的管理和产生更好的综合效益。
In order to improve climate resilience,the world is working to explore effective ways to mitigate water risks.The flood control problem has the dual attributes of nature and society.It is necessary to combine nature-based solutions with social institutional means,and adopt a more systematic strategy to realize the dual management of natural ecology and social production.Using the participatory system dynamics model and scenario analysis method,this paper selects Poyang Lake as a case to comprehensively examine the potential of nature-based solutions and social institutional means in reducing flood risk,as well as the derived social,economic and ecological benefits.The results show that:(1)Naturebased solutions and social systems gradually adjust the key factors affecting the scale of floods through the mechanism of continuous feedback and circulation to achieve the purpose of flood control and flood mitigation.(2)On the basis of flood control benefits,nature-based solutions and social institutional means also derive ecological,economic and social benefits,but the effectiveness of nature-based solutions presents a more obvious time lag.(3)The two strategies of nature-based solutions and social institutional means complement each other.In order to give full play to the long-term effectiveness of nature-based solutions,it is necessary to enhance the safety awareness,financial support,institutional cooperation and capacity building of flood control at the social level in terms of social institutional means.To maintain the long-term effectiveness of social institutional means,there must also be a natural-based solution as a basis.The optimal combination of the corresponding measures of the two types of management methods is more conducive to the management of flood risk and the generation of multiple common benefits.
作者
李萌
LI Meng(Research Institute for Eco-civilization,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期178-191,共14页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(TZ140001)
中国社会科学院创新工程重大科研规划项目“国家治理体系和治理能力现代化研究”(2019ZDGH014)。
关键词
基于自然的解决方案
社会制度手段
参与式系统动力模型
鄱阳湖流域防洪
nature-based solutions
socio-institutional measures
participatory system dynamic models
Flood Control in Poyang Lake Basin
