摘要
陆上风电项目资金投入大、建设周期紧、影响因素广,风险评价研究对于项目的高质量完成有着重要的现实意义.目前国内风电项目风险评价研究相对较少,且研究方法多以主观定性为主.为科学评价陆上风电项目的风险等级,本文从政策风险、环境与生态风险、技术风险、建设施工风险、经济风险、管理风险、社会风险7个方面构建陆上风电项目风险评价指标体系,利用博弈论组合赋权法和改进灰色TOPSIS法构建风险评价模型.经实例验证,综合权重较高的风险指标与项目实际吻合度较高,该评价方法能够真实有效地判定项目所处风险等级,评价结果对陆上风电项目风险评价具有较好的参考价值和指导意义.
The onshore wind power project has the characteristics of large capital investment,tight construction period and mass influencing factors,so the research of risk assessment has the important practical significance for the high-quality completion of the project.At present,there are relatively few researches on risk assessment of wind power projects in China,and most of the methods are subjective and qualitative.In order to evaluate the risk level of onshore wind power projects scientifically,the risk evaluation index system of onshore wind power projects is constructed in this paper from seven aspects:policy risk,environmental and ecological risk,technical risk,construction risk,economic risk,management risk and social risk.Meanwhile,the risk evaluation model is built by using the combination weighting method of game theory and the improved grey correlation approximation ideal solution.The example shows that the risk index with higher comprehensive weight is highly close to the practical project,and the evaluation method can truly and effectively determine the risk level of the project.The evaluation results have better reference value and guiding significance for the risk evaluation of onshore wind power projects.
作者
胡乐超
陈学轩
李柯润
唐德善
汪锡彪
李莹
HU Lechao;CHEN Xuexuan;LI Kerun;TANG Deshan;WANG Xibiao;LI Ying(China Three Gorges Renewables(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100032,China;College of Water Resources&Hydropower,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2023年第3期75-81,95,共8页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0405805-04)。
关键词
陆上风电项目
风险评价
博弈论组合赋权
改进灰色TOPSIS
onshore wind power projects
risk assessment
combination weighting of game theory
improved grey correlation approximation ideal solution
