摘要
为量化雷击作用诱发的多米诺效应对站场储罐区事故的影响,利用相关标准,计算了不同储罐规格、不同密封条件下雷击引发池火灾的场景概率,结合贝叶斯网络,提出了多米诺效应定量分析方法及计算流程,并依据断链减灾原理,识别了最危险的初始单元和目标储罐,进而对储罐进行了脆弱性评价,并根据社会风险分析了不同措施对风险降低的影响。结果表明,不同密封形式造成的雷击池火概率有所不同,最危险的初始单元和最危险的目标储罐与主导风向、风速、罐组间距等因素相关,控制最危险的初始单元对多米诺效应的减灾防控效果更好。研究结果可为同类站场储罐区的风险评价提供实际参考。
In order to quantify the impact of the domino effect induced by lightning on the accident in the storage tank area of the station,the scenario probability of the pool fire caused by lightning strike under different tank specifications and different sealing conditions was calculated by using relevant standards.The quantitative analysis method and calculation process of the domino effect were put forward by combining with the Bayesian network,and the most dangerous initial unit and target tank were identified according to the principle of chain breaking disaster reduction.Then the vulnerability of the storage tank was evaluated,and the influence of different measures on risk reduction was analyzed according to the social risk.The results show that the probability of lightning strike pool fire caused by different sealing forms is different.The most dangerous initial unit and the most dangerous target tank are related to the dominant wind direction,wind speed,tank spacing and other factors,and the most dangerous initial unit has better control effect on domino effect.The research results can provide practical reference for the risk assessment of the similar station tank area.
作者
于青青
YU Qingqing(Jiangsu Gas Storage Branch of Huabei Petroleum Administration Bureau Co.Ltd.,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2023年第2期64-72,共9页
World Petroleum Industry
关键词
自然灾害事故链
储罐
脆弱性
贝叶斯网络
雷击
多米诺效应
natural disaster accident chain
storage tank
vulnerability
bayesian network
lightning stroke
domino effect
