摘要
随着《中国教育现代化2035》的发布,我国正式迈向教育现代化建设的征程,积极应对未来学龄人口变化趋势,做好人口年龄结构变化之下的教育发展规划是我国教育界面临的重大现实问题。文章利用24个国家1997—2019年的数据,建立面板门槛模型,分析一国学龄人口占比对公共教育经费占GDP比例的影响,并对2021—2035年我国公共教育财政投资比例进行预测,主要研究发现:拥有更多学龄人口的国家,其学龄人口占比对公共教育投资比例的正向影响效应越小;2021—2035年间,随着我国学龄人口进一步减少,财政性教育经费占GDP的比例将小幅提升,2025年达到3.98%,2030年为4.23%,2035年为4.34%。
With the release of“China s Education Modernization 2035”,China has officially entered the stage of constructing education modernization.It is an important realistic problem for China s education to cope with the future trend of school-age population and make a good education development plan under the adjustment of population structure.Based on the panel data of 24 countries from 1997 to 2019,this paper establishes a threshold regression model to analyze the impact of the ratio of school-age population on the proportion of public education expenditure in GDP in a country,and forecasts the proportion of investment in public education in China from 2021 to 2035.The main research results are as follows:The more school-age population a country has,the less positive impact its school-age population ratio has on the proportion of public education investment.From 2021 to 2035,with the further decrease of the school-age population,the proportion of public education expenditure in GDP of China should be slightly increased,reaching 3.98%in 2025,4.23%in 2030 and 4.34%in 2035.
作者
胡咏梅
刘雅楠
Yongmei Hu;Yanan Liu(Faculty of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)
出处
《教育与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期41-52,共12页
Education & Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金教育学重大项目“教育适应中国人口结构发展趋势研究”(VGA190003)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地“十四五”规划重大项目“教育与高质量发展研究”(22JJD880003)。
关键词
教育财政投入
公共教育投资比例
学龄人口
人口年龄结构
2021—2035年
education financial investment
proportion of investment in public education
school-age population
population age structure
from 2021 to 2035
